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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Cagliari

S S U S U

1–2

Full-time

Lazio

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,8

3,8

Scored

3,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+2,2

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 60%

53%

67%

Points per game

1,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

53%

80%

Both score Ø 67%

73%

60%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,1

2,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 9

3 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 5. · Lazio 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	3	1	+18	39
2	Juventus	16	12	3	1	+13	39
3	Lazio	15	10	3	2	+21	33
4	Roma	16	9	5	2	+13	32
5	Cagliari	15	8	5	2	+12	29
6	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+13	28
7	Parma	16	7	3	6	+4	24
8	Napoli	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Torino	16	6	3	7	-3	21
10	Milan	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-3	19
12	Verona	16	5	4	7	-3	19
13	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-4	17
14	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-1	16
15	Lecce	16	3	6	7	-12	15
16	Sampdoria	16	4	3	9	-12	15
17	Udinese	16	4	3	9	-16	15
18	Brescia	15	4	1	10	-12	13
19	Genoa	16	2	5	9	-14	11
20	Spal	16	2	3	11	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	1	0	+9	22
2	Lazio	8	6	2	0	+17	20
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Cagliari	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	Parma	8	4	0	4	+3	12
7	Verona	9	3	3	3	+0	12
8	Napoli	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Bologna	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Torino	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Udinese	8	3	2	3	-4	11
12	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+4	10
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+2	10
14	Fiorentina	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Milan	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Sampdoria	8	2	3	3	-4	9
17	Spal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Genoa	8	2	1	5	-3	7
19	Lecce	7	0	4	3	-5	4
20	Brescia	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Atalanta	9	5	3	1	+9	18
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+4	17
4	Roma	8	4	3	1	+6	15
5	Cagliari	7	3	4	0	+5	13
6	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Parma	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Milan	8	4	0	4	+0	12
9	Lecce	9	3	2	4	-7	11
10	Napoli	8	2	4	2	+2	10
11	Torino	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Brescia	8	3	0	5	-5	9
13	Bologna	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Verona	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Sassuolo	7	1	3	3	-3	6
17	Sampdoria	8	2	0	6	-8	6
18	Genoa	8	0	4	4	-11	4
19	Udinese	8	1	1	6	-12	4
20	Spal	8	0	1	7	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.