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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Lorient

T S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 31%

26%

35%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

70%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 20. · Toulouse 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	24	17	4	3	+47	55
2	Paris SG	24	16	4	4	+29	52
3	Nice	23	14	7	2	+20	49
4	Lyon	22	12	1	9	+13	37
5	St Etienne	23	9	9	5	+8	36
6	Bordeaux	24	9	9	6	+1	36
7	Marseille	23	9	6	8	+1	33
8	Guingamp	23	8	7	8	+1	31
9	Rennes	23	8	7	8	-4	31
10	Toulouse	23	8	5	10	+0	29
11	Nancy	22	7	6	9	-7	27
12	Lille	24	7	5	12	-8	26
13	Montpellier	24	6	8	10	-9	26
14	Metz	22	7	5	10	-16	26
15	Nantes	23	7	5	11	-16	26
16	Caen	23	7	4	12	-15	25
17	Dijon	23	5	9	9	-4	24
18	Angers	23	6	5	12	-13	23
19	Bastia	23	5	7	11	-8	22
20	Lorient	23	6	3	14	-20	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	12	10	1	1	+31	31
2	Nice	12	9	3	0	+18	30
3	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+22	28
4	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+11	24
5	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+8	24
6	St Etienne	12	6	5	1	+8	23
7	Montpellier	12	6	4	2	+10	22
8	Toulouse	12	7	1	4	+8	22
9	Lyon	11	7	0	4	+8	21
10	Guingamp	11	6	3	2	+5	21
11	Caen	11	6	2	3	-3	20
12	Bordeaux	12	5	4	3	-1	19
13	Dijon	12	4	5	3	+4	17
14	Lille	12	5	2	5	-1	17
15	Angers	11	4	4	3	+1	16
16	Nancy	11	5	1	5	+1	16
17	Lorient	11	5	1	5	-4	16
18	Bastia	12	3	6	3	+1	15
19	Metz	10	4	3	3	-6	15
20	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	12	7	3	2	+16	24
2	Paris SG	12	8	0	4	+7	24
3	Nice	11	5	4	2	+2	19
4	Bordeaux	12	4	5	3	+2	17
5	Lyon	11	5	1	5	+5	16
6	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	St Etienne	11	3	4	4	+0	13
8	Nancy	11	2	5	4	-8	11
9	Metz	12	3	2	7	-10	11
10	Guingamp	12	2	4	6	-4	10
11	Lille	12	2	3	7	-7	9
12	Marseille	12	2	3	7	-10	9
13	Dijon	11	1	4	6	-8	7
14	Toulouse	11	1	4	6	-8	7
15	Bastia	11	2	1	8	-9	7
16	Rennes	11	1	4	6	-12	7
17	Angers	12	2	1	9	-14	7
18	Caen	12	1	2	9	-12	5
19	Lorient	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Montpellier	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.