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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Maritimo

U T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Belenenses

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

26%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,9

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

27 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 13. · Belenenses 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	16	3	1	+29	51
2	Benfica	20	16	1	3	+40	49
3	Porto	20	14	4	2	+28	46
4	Sp Braga	20	10	6	4	+19	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	20	8	6	6	+5	30
6	Guimaraes	20	8	6	6	-1	30
7	Rio Ave	20	8	4	8	-2	28
8	Arouca	20	5	10	5	+0	25
9	Vitoria Setubal	20	6	7	7	-6	25
10	Estoril	20	6	5	9	-6	23
11	U. Madeira	20	6	5	9	-10	23
12	Belenenses	19	5	7	7	-15	22
13	Maritimo	19	6	3	10	-11	21
14	Nacional	20	5	5	10	-8	20
15	Moreirense	20	5	5	10	-12	20
16	Boavista	20	4	5	11	-13	17
17	Academica	20	4	5	11	-17	17
18	Tondela	20	2	3	15	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Porto	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+13	26
4	Rio Ave	11	7	0	4	+4	21
5	Sp Braga	9	6	2	1	+18	20
6	U. Madeira	10	5	3	2	+3	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	5	2	3	+6	17
8	Belenenses	9	4	4	1	+2	16
9	Nacional	10	4	3	3	+2	15
10	Arouca	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Guimaraes	11	4	3	4	+2	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
13	Academica	10	4	3	3	-3	15
14	Maritimo	9	4	2	3	+5	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	6	2	-6	12
16	Moreirense	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Tondela	10	1	1	8	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+16	25
2	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+14	22
3	Porto	10	6	2	2	+12	20
4	Sp Braga	11	4	4	3	+1	16
5	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	-3	15
6	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	1	5	+0	13
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	3	4	3	-1	13
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
9	Arouca	10	1	7	2	-2	10
10	Boavista	10	2	2	6	-7	8
11	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-8	8
12	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-6	7
13	Maritimo	10	2	1	7	-16	7
14	Belenenses	10	1	3	6	-17	6
15	Tondela	10	1	2	7	-8	5
16	Nacional	10	1	2	7	-10	5
17	U. Madeira	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Academica	10	0	2	8	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.