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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vasco Santos

Porto

U U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Chaves

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 48%

64%

31%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

57%

23%

Both score Ø 45%

36%

54%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

0,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 25

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 2. · Chaves 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	Porto	14	9	4	1	+20	31
3	Sp Braga	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Sp Lisbon	14	8	3	3	+11	27
5	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+2	23
7	Maritimo	15	6	2	7	-2	20
8	Chaves	13	4	7	2	+2	19
9	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-4	17
10	Arouca	14	5	2	7	-5	17
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	4	6	-3	16
12	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	4	6	-5	16
13	Estoril	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Boavista	14	3	5	6	-4	14
15	Nacional	14	3	2	9	-9	11
16	Moreirense	14	3	2	9	-11	11
17	Feirense	14	3	2	9	-20	11
18	Tondela	14	2	4	8	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Porto	7	6	1	0	+11	19
4	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+13	16
5	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Rio Ave	8	4	0	4	-1	12
9	Chaves	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Arouca	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Belenenses	6	2	3	1	+0	9
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Tondela	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Feirense	7	1	1	5	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+9	19
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Porto	7	3	3	1	+9	12
4	Rio Ave	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Sp Braga	7	3	1	3	+0	10
6	Chaves	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Sp Lisbon	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Estoril	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	7
11	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-5	7
12	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
13	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-7	6
16	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.