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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Tondela

T T S T S

1–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

2,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

31%

13%

Points per game

1,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

15 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 11. · Vitoria Setubal 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	+36	45
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	4	0	+28	43
3	Benfica	17	12	4	1	+29	40
4	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+19	37
5	Rio Ave	17	8	3	6	+6	27
6	Maritimo	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-2	23
8	Guimaraes	17	7	2	8	-8	23
9	Boavista	16	6	2	8	-4	20
10	Portimonense	17	4	6	7	-4	18
11	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-7	18
12	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-8	18
13	Feirense	17	5	2	10	-6	17
14	Aves	17	3	5	9	-10	14
15	Moreirense	17	3	5	9	-14	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	5	9	-15	14
17	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	5	9	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+24	25
2	Sp Braga	9	8	0	1	+18	24
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+16	23
4	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+19	22
5	Maritimo	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Rio Ave	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Portimonense	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+5	14
9	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-4	13
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Boavista	8	4	0	4	-4	12
12	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+2	10
13	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	Feirense	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Moreirense	8	1	4	3	-5	7
16	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Aves	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Benfica	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sp Braga	8	4	1	3	+1	13
5	Chaves	9	4	1	4	-4	13
6	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Tondela	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-4	10
9	Aves	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	Boavista	8	2	2	4	+0	8
11	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-2	7
12	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-9	7
13	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-14	5
15	Portimonense	9	0	4	5	-9	4
16	Belenenses	9	1	1	7	-13	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	0	2	7	-16	2
18	Vitoria Setubal	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.