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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Chaves

U S U S U

4–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

41%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

35%

65%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–3

57% Possession 43%

24 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 7. · Guimaraes 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	+36	45
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	4	0	+28	43
3	Benfica	17	12	4	1	+29	40
4	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+19	37
5	Rio Ave	17	8	3	6	+6	27
6	Maritimo	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-2	23
8	Guimaraes	17	7	2	8	-8	23
9	Boavista	17	6	3	8	-4	21
10	Tondela	17	5	4	8	-7	19
11	Belenenses	17	5	4	8	-8	19
12	Portimonense	17	4	6	7	-4	18
13	Feirense	17	5	2	10	-6	17
14	Aves	17	3	5	9	-10	14
15	Moreirense	17	3	5	9	-14	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	5	9	-15	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	17	2	6	9	-16	12
18	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+24	25
2	Sp Braga	9	8	0	1	+18	24
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+16	23
4	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+19	22
5	Maritimo	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Rio Ave	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Portimonense	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-4	13
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Boavista	8	4	0	4	-4	12
12	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+2	10
13	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	Feirense	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Tondela	9	2	2	5	-6	8
16	Moreirense	8	1	4	3	-5	7
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Aves	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Benfica	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sp Braga	8	4	1	3	+1	13
5	Chaves	9	4	1	4	-4	13
6	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Tondela	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-4	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	+0	9
10	Aves	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-2	7
12	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-9	7
13	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-14	5
15	Portimonense	9	0	4	5	-9	4
16	Belenenses	9	1	1	7	-13	4
17	Vitoria Setubal	8	0	2	6	-13	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	0	2	7	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.