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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Middlesbrough

U S T T U

5–1

Full-time

Norwich

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,0

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 40/41 matches

Win Ø 46%

50%

41%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

68%

44%

Both score Ø 57%

65%

49%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

48% Possession 52%

8 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 3. · Norwich 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	40	26	12	2	+48	90
2	Sheffield United	40	23	7	10	+25	76
3	Middlesbrough	40	20	8	12	+25	68
4	Luton	38	19	11	8	+15	68
5	Millwall	41	17	11	13	+7	62
6	Blackburn	40	19	5	16	-2	62
7	Preston	41	17	11	13	-4	62
8	Norwich	41	17	10	14	+12	61
9	West Brom	40	15	12	13	+6	57
10	Sunderland	39	15	11	13	+8	56
11	Watford	41	14	14	13	+2	56
12	Coventry	39	14	13	12	+5	55
13	Bristol City	41	13	14	14	+0	53
14	Swansea	41	14	11	16	-3	53
15	Stoke	41	14	10	17	+6	52
16	Hull	41	13	13	15	-9	52
17	Birmingham	41	13	11	17	-7	50
18	Reading	41	13	8	20	-19	47
19	Rotherham	40	10	15	15	-8	45
20	Huddersfield	41	11	10	20	-18	43
21	QPR	41	11	10	20	-24	43
22	Cardiff	40	11	9	20	-13	42
23	Wigan	41	8	13	20	-28	37
24	Blackpool	41	8	11	22	-24	35

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	15	6	0	+32	51
2	Blackburn	19	13	1	5	+9	40
3	Middlesbrough	20	11	6	3	+21	39
4	Sheffield United	19	12	3	4	+19	39
5	West Brom	21	10	7	4	+11	37
6	Millwall	20	10	6	4	+12	36
7	Reading	20	10	5	5	+7	35
8	Luton	20	9	7	4	+9	34
9	Watford	20	9	6	5	+10	33
10	Bristol City	21	8	7	6	+6	31
11	Coventry	19	8	6	5	+2	30
12	Rotherham	19	8	5	6	+9	29
13	Norwich	21	8	5	8	+4	29
14	Hull	21	8	5	8	-4	29
15	Swansea	20	8	4	8	+2	28
16	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	+2	27
17	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-2	27
18	Preston	21	7	6	8	-5	27
19	Sunderland	19	6	6	7	-1	24
20	Cardiff	21	6	6	9	-3	24
21	Stoke	20	6	5	9	+1	23
22	QPR	20	6	4	10	-9	22
23	Blackpool	20	5	6	9	-4	21
24	Wigan	21	4	6	11	-19	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	11	6	2	+16	39
2	Sheffield United	21	11	4	6	+6	37
3	Preston	20	10	5	5	+1	35
4	Luton	18	10	4	4	+6	34
5	Sunderland	20	9	5	6	+9	32
6	Norwich	20	9	5	6	+8	32
7	Stoke	21	8	5	8	+5	29
8	Middlesbrough	20	9	2	9	+4	29
9	Millwall	21	7	5	9	-5	26
10	Coventry	20	6	7	7	+3	25
11	Swansea	21	6	7	8	-5	25
12	Hull	20	5	8	7	-5	23
13	Watford	21	5	8	8	-8	23
14	Birmingham	20	6	5	9	-9	23
15	Bristol City	20	5	7	8	-6	22
16	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	-11	22
17	QPR	21	5	6	10	-15	21
18	West Brom	19	5	5	9	-5	20
19	Wigan	20	4	7	9	-9	19
20	Cardiff	19	5	3	11	-10	18
21	Huddersfield	20	4	4	12	-16	16
22	Rotherham	21	2	10	9	-17	16
23	Blackpool	21	3	5	13	-20	14
24	Reading	21	3	3	15	-26	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.