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Copa del Rey

Referee: Pablo González

Sestao River

S T S

1–2

Full-time

Celta

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sestao River Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

7,0

4,0

Scored

4,0

Conceded

3,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

5 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sestao River 32. · Celta 26. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Betis	2	2	0	0	+12	6
3	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Espanol	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Lugo	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Castellon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
23	Melilla	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Malaga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Alcorcon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
27	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Levante	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Antequera	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
56	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
57	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
58	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
59	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
60	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
61	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
62	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
71	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
73	Linares Deportivo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
74	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
20	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
21	Melilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
30	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Linares Deportivo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Arenteiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Antequera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
71	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
73	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Betis	2	2	0	0	+12	6
3	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
16	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
53	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.