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DBU Pokalen
Referee: Jonas Bøgelund
1–6
Full-time
Aalborg
U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marstal / Rise Aalborg
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
4,5
3,5
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
2,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — DBU Pokalen · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
3,0
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Marstal / Rise 32. · Aalborg 36.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Odense 1 1 0 0 +11 3
2 B 93 1 1 0 0 +10 3
3 Skjold Sæby 1 1 0 0 +7 3
4 FC Nakskov 1 1 0 0 +6 3
5 Vejgaard B 1 1 0 0 +6 3
6 FC Horsens 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Sundby 1 1 0 0 +5 3
8 VSK Århus 1 1 0 0 +5 3
9 Holbæk B&I 1 1 0 0 +5 3
10 Hillerød 1 1 0 0 +5 3
11 Vanløse 1 1 0 0 +5 3
12 Kolding IF 1 1 0 0 +4 3
13 Skanderborg 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Oksbøl 1 1 0 0 +3 3
15 Skive 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Kolding B 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Silkeborg KFUM 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 Aarhus Fremad 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Brønshøj 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Odder 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 Hobro 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 AB Copenhagen 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 HIK 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 GVI 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Roskilde 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Thisted FC 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Raklev 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Ringsted 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Hvidovre IF 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Farsø/Ullits 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Middelfart 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Marstal / Rise 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Bramming 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Horsens 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Ishøj 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Aalborg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Esbjerg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Lyseng 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Gørslev 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Tune 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Mejrup 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 BSI 1 1 0 0 +1 3
43 Lyngby 1 1 0 0 +1 3
44 B 1909 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 FA 2000 1 1 0 0 +1 3
46 FC Kalundborg 2 1 0 1 -10 3
47 LSF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Frem 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 Nykobing FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
50 HB Koge 1 0 0 1 -1 0
51 Nørresundby 1 0 0 1 -1 0
52 OKS 1 0 0 1 -1 0
53 Tved 1 0 0 1 -1 0
54 SfB-Oure 1 0 0 1 -1 0
55 Næsby 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 Fremad Amager 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 Vendsyssel FF 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 Marienlyst 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 ASA Aarhus 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Naestved 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 ESPM 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 TRIF 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 Nerashté Ballerup 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 FC Helsingor 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Sønderborg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Tårnby FF 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Stenløse 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Allerød 1 0 0 1 -2 0
69 Holstebro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
70 Skovsgård 1 0 0 1 -2 0
71 Rudersdal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
72 Fredensborg BI 1 0 0 1 -2 0
73 NB Bornholm 1 0 0 1 -2 0
74 Kastrup 1 0 0 1 -2 0
75 Skødstrup 1 0 0 1 -2 0
76 Avarta 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Billund 1 0 0 1 -3 0
78 Brabrand 1 0 0 1 -3 0
79 BK Chang 1 0 0 1 -3 0
80 Grenaa 1 0 0 1 -3 0
81 Skibsby-Hojene 1 0 0 1 -3 0
82 KFUM Odense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
83 Kjellerup 1 0 0 1 -4 0
84 BiH Odense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
85 Frem Sakskøbing 1 0 0 1 -5 0
86 Norager 1 0 0 1 -5 0
87 Husum 1 0 0 1 -5 0
88 Viktoria 1 0 0 1 -5 0
89 Øresund OKF 1 0 0 1 -5 0
90 Vallensbæk 1 0 0 1 -6 0
91 Snejbjerg 1 0 0 1 -6 0
92 LUIF 1 0 0 1 -7 0
93 Ålholm 1 0 0 1 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marstal / Rise Aalborg
1′
N. Helenius 0–1
33′
N. Helenius 0–2
36′
K. John 0–3
Half-time 0–3
P. T. Larsen 🔁
↦ S. Dalhede
46′
46′
🔁 F. Borsting
↦ M. Kallesoe
46′
🔁 B. Skovgaard
↦ N. Helenius
57′
K. John 0–4
60′
🔁 O. Ross
↦ K. John
60′
🔁 A. Jasson
↦ A. Maarup
K. Eriksen 🔁
↦ M. Andersen
63′
E. Knudsen 🔁
↦ J. K. Knudsen
63′
65′
K. Hansen 0–5
1–5 M. G. Mikkelsen
67′
71′
O. Ross 1–6
80′
🔁 V. Bertelsen
↦ V. Muller
M. Fleischer 🔁
↦ T. Holm
82′
Full-time 1–6

Line-ups

Marstal / Rise

1 B. G. Eriksen
2 M. Andersen
3 M. G. Mikkelsen
8 E. G. Mikkelsen
9 N. Mikkelsen
10 C. Rasmussen
12 P. Fleischer
13 K. Kildegaard
14 S. Dalhede
15 J. K. Knudsen
16 T. Holm
Bench (8)
4 K. Eriksen
5 E. Knudsen
11 P. T. Larsen
17 J. Dalhede
18 W. Christensen
19 M. Fleischer
20 J. Alfredsen
71 P. Sylvestersen

Coach: P. Juel

Aalborg

1 V. Muller
2 M. Kallesoe
5 M. Nielsen
8 A. Hapnes
9 N. Helenius
11 K. Hansen
15 C. Olsson
18 A. Maarup
21 M. Bomholt
26 M. Bonde
27 K. John
Bench (7)
10 O. Ross
17 A. Jasson
25 F. Borsting
35 E. Amankwah
37 A. Diagne
39 B. Skovgaard
50 V. Bertelsen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.