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Premiership
Referee: R Lee
Dunfermline
U T
1–0
Full-time
Arbroath
U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dunfermline Arbroath
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
0,0
Scored
0,0
0,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
5 Shots on target 0
0 Blocked shots 4
6 Corners 0
3 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Hearts 35 23 7 5 +32 +13.6 76
2 Celtic 35 23 4 8 +27 +23.8 73
3 Rangers 35 19 12 4 +33 +21.2 69
4 Motherwell 35 15 12 8 +23 +9.4 57
5 Hibernian 35 13 12 10 +12 +0.1 51
6 Falkirk 35 14 7 14 -4 +3.8 49
7 Dundee United 35 10 13 12 -9 -10.8 43
8 Aberdeen 35 10 7 18 -14 -15.0 37
9 Dundee 35 9 9 17 -21 -11.9 36
10 Kilmarnock 35 7 10 18 -26 -14.4 31
11 St Mirren 35 7 9 19 -24 -3.4 30
12 Livingston 35 2 14 19 -29 -16.6 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dunfermline Arbroath
1–0 C. Kane ⚽
A. Tod
7′
Half-time 1–0
63′
🟨 Ryan Flynn
66′
🟨 Ryan Dow
Alfons Amade 🟨
67′
71′
🟨 Thomas O'Brien
72′
🔁 S. Robinson
↦ R. Dow
Robbie Fraser 🟨
80′
J. Cooper 🔁
↦ C. Morrison
81′
J. Tod 🔁
↦ A. Amade
81′
T. Oakley-Boothe 🔁
↦ C. Kane
88′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Dunfermline

3-4-3
13 A. Oxborough G
2 J. Chilokoa-Mullen D
18 N. Abdulai D
3 K. Ngwenya D
10 M. Todd M
8 C. Gilmour M
14 A. Amade M
47 R. Fraser M
38 C. Morrison F
20 C. Kane F
26 A. Tod F
Bench (9)
40 B. Terrell
4 K. Benedictus
33 J. Cooper
22 K. Bray
5 C. Hamilton
35 T. Oakley-Boothe
11 S. Kearney
34 L. Fyfe
31 J. Tod

Coach: Neil Lennon

Arbroath

4-2-3-1
1 A. McAdams G
12 S. Stewart
16 C. Watson D
5 T. O'Brien
4 J. Wilkie D
25 H. Cochrane
8 R. Flynn M
15 J. MacIntyre M
17 F. Marshall
11 R. Dow
10 G. Reilly F
Bench (8)
21 J. Pettigrew
28 S. Robinson
3 C. Hamilton
6 A. Muirhead
62 D. Mebude
27 V. Enem
7 D. Gold
26 T. Beadling

Coach: Jack Colin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Lee · 22 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.