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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa

Valencia

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Vallecano

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

27%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

46%

42%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,36 xG 0,85

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

13 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 19. · Vallecano 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	27	23	2	2	+44	+7.9	71
2	Real Madrid	27	18	5	4	+36	+13.4	59
3	Ath Madrid	27	16	6	5	+24	+8.6	54
4	Sociedad	27	14	6	7	+9	+0.6	48
5	Betis	27	13	6	8	+7	+3.0	45
6	Villarreal	27	13	5	9	+10	+5.0	44
7	Ath Bilbao	27	10	7	10	+8	+1.4	37
8	Vallecano	26	9	9	8	+1	-0.2	36
9	Celta	27	9	8	10	-3	+2.6	35
10	Osasuna	27	9	8	10	-5	-8.1	35
11	Girona	27	9	7	11	+0	-2.6	34
12	Mallorca	27	9	6	12	-5	-3.5	33
13	Sevilla	27	8	7	12	-11	+3.2	31
14	Getafe	27	7	9	11	-7	+0.2	30
15	Cadiz	27	6	10	11	-19	-3.3	28
16	Valladolid	27	8	4	15	-24	-11.7	28
17	Espanol	27	6	9	12	-11	-1.1	27
18	Almeria	27	7	6	14	-15	-3.8	27
19	Valencia	26	7	5	14	-3	-4.0	26
20	Elche	27	2	7	18	-36	-7.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	11	2	0	+25	+5.2	35
2	Real Madrid	13	9	4	0	+23	+12.2	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	8	3	3	+15	+6.8	27
4	Villarreal	13	8	2	3	+9	+5.1	26
5	Betis	13	7	3	3	+7	+1.5	24
6	Girona	14	7	3	4	+6	+1.4	24
7	Almeria	14	7	2	5	+3	+0.5	23
8	Sociedad	13	6	4	3	+3	+2.7	22
9	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.1	22
10	Ath Bilbao	14	6	3	5	+7	+0.9	21
11	Valencia	13	6	2	5	+8	+2.0	20
12	Celta	14	5	5	4	+5	+3.5	20
13	Vallecano	13	5	5	3	+4	-0.1	20
14	Valladolid	13	6	2	5	-1	-0.2	20
15	Getafe	14	5	4	5	+0	-0.4	19
16	Osasuna	13	6	1	6	-2	-3.3	19
17	Sevilla	13	5	3	5	+0	+9.1	18
18	Cadiz	14	4	6	4	-5	+1.1	18
19	Espanol	13	3	4	6	-6	+2.3	13
20	Elche	14	1	4	9	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	12	0	2	+19	+2.8	36
2	Real Madrid	14	9	1	4	+13	+1.2	28
3	Ath Madrid	13	8	3	2	+9	+1.7	27
4	Sociedad	14	8	2	4	+6	-2.1	26
5	Betis	14	6	3	5	+0	+1.5	21
6	Villarreal	14	5	3	6	+1	-0.1	18
7	Ath Bilbao	13	4	4	5	+1	+0.6	16
8	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-3	-0.1	16
9	Osasuna	14	3	7	4	-3	-4.7	16
10	Celta	13	4	3	6	-8	-0.8	15
11	Espanol	14	3	5	6	-5	-3.3	14
12	Sevilla	14	3	4	7	-11	-5.9	13
13	Getafe	13	2	5	6	-7	+0.6	11
14	Mallorca	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.7	11
15	Girona	13	2	4	7	-6	-4.0	10
16	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-14	-4.4	10
17	Valladolid	14	2	2	10	-23	-11.5	8
18	Valencia	13	1	3	9	-11	-6.0	6
19	Elche	13	1	3	9	-22	-8.0	6
20	Almeria	13	0	4	9	-18	-4.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.