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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Vallecano

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Valladolid

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Valladolid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

34%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

53%

Both score Ø 49%

56%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,41 xG 0,56

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

5 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 11. · Valladolid 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	26	4	3	+49	+15.6	82
2	Ath Madrid	33	21	6	6	+34	+15.8	69
3	Real Madrid	33	21	5	7	+37	+17.5	68
4	Sociedad	33	18	7	8	+14	+4.4	61
5	Villarreal	33	16	6	11	+13	+9.4	54
6	Betis	32	14	7	11	+2	+0.8	49
7	Ath Bilbao	32	13	8	11	+11	+3.2	47
8	Girona	33	13	8	12	+6	-3.6	47
9	Osasuna	33	12	8	13	-6	-11.5	44
10	Sevilla	33	12	8	13	-8	+5.3	44
11	Vallecano	32	11	10	11	-3	-4.6	43
12	Mallorca	33	11	8	14	-5	-4.1	41
13	Celta	33	10	9	14	-8	-1.9	39
14	Almeria	33	10	6	17	-16	-7.4	36
15	Cadiz	33	8	11	14	-23	-6.0	35
16	Valladolid	32	10	5	17	-26	-12.2	35
17	Valencia	33	9	7	17	-4	-2.2	34
18	Getafe	33	8	10	15	-12	-4.0	34
19	Espanol	33	7	10	16	-16	-7.0	31
20	Elche	33	3	7	23	-39	-7.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	3	0	+31	+11.6	45
2	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+26	+15.1	37
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	3	3	+22	+13.6	36
4	Girona	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.7	33
5	Villarreal	16	10	2	4	+12	+9.4	32
6	Sociedad	16	9	4	3	+8	+6.0	31
7	Almeria	17	9	2	6	+4	+0.4	29
8	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
9	Vallecano	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.0	26
10	Mallorca	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.8	26
11	Valencia	17	7	4	6	+7	+4.0	25
12	Sevilla	17	7	4	6	+0	+10.5	25
13	Osasuna	16	8	1	7	-2	-3.5	25
14	Ath Bilbao	16	7	3	6	+8	-0.5	24
15	Valladolid	16	7	3	6	-3	-0.8	24
16	Celta	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.2	23
17	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+0	+0.7	23
18	Cadiz	17	5	6	6	-7	-0.8	21
19	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.4	17
20	Elche	16	2	4	10	-12	+2.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+18	+4.0	37
2	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+12	+2.2	33
3	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Ath Bilbao	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.7	23
6	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.0	22
7	Betis	16	6	3	7	-5	-0.3	21
8	Osasuna	17	4	7	6	-4	-8.1	19
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-8	-5.2	19
10	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-8	-3.6	17
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-13	-5.1	16
12	Mallorca	17	4	3	10	-10	-5.9	15
13	Girona	16	3	5	8	-5	-6.2	14
14	Espanol	17	3	5	9	-10	-9.4	14
15	Cadiz	16	3	5	8	-16	-5.2	14
16	Getafe	16	2	5	9	-12	-4.8	11
17	Valladolid	16	3	2	11	-23	-11.4	11
18	Valencia	16	2	3	11	-11	-6.2	9
19	Almeria	16	1	4	11	-20	-7.8	7
20	Elche	17	1	3	13	-27	-9.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.