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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Vallecano

U U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Barcelona

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 57%

33%

80%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

47%

43%

Both score Ø 39%

57%

20%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,73 xG 0,87

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 10. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	30	24	4	2	+45	+10.6	76
2	Real Madrid	31	20	5	6	+37	+17.1	65
3	Ath Madrid	31	19	6	6	+27	+12.8	63
4	Sociedad	31	16	7	8	+10	+3.3	55
5	Betis	31	14	7	10	+6	+3.3	49
6	Villarreal	30	14	5	11	+9	+5.4	47
7	Ath Bilbao	30	13	7	10	+12	+3.2	46
8	Osasuna	31	12	8	11	-3	-9.2	44
9	Girona	31	11	8	12	+3	-2.4	41
10	Vallecano	30	10	10	10	+0	-2.5	40
11	Mallorca	31	11	7	13	-4	-3.1	40
12	Sevilla	30	10	8	12	-8	+1.5	38
13	Celta	30	9	9	12	-6	+2.0	36
14	Valladolid	30	10	5	15	-22	-12.0	35
15	Almeria	31	9	6	16	-15	-6.6	33
16	Cadiz	31	7	11	13	-20	-3.7	32
17	Getafe	31	7	10	14	-12	-4.4	31
18	Valencia	30	8	6	16	-4	-2.2	30
19	Espanol	30	6	10	14	-14	-4.3	28
20	Elche	30	2	7	21	-41	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	3	0	+26	+6.8	39
2	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+24	+13.6	34
3	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+18	+10.8	33
4	Girona	16	9	3	4	+10	+2.4	30
5	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
6	Sociedad	15	8	4	3	+6	+4.9	28
7	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+8	+4.9	26
8	Almeria	16	8	2	6	+3	-0.4	26
9	Mallorca	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.5	25
10	Osasuna	15	8	1	6	+0	-3.5	25
11	Ath Bilbao	15	7	3	5	+9	+0.3	24
12	Valladolid	15	7	3	5	+0	-0.6	24
13	Vallecano	15	6	5	4	+4	-0.9	23
14	Sevilla	15	6	4	5	+1	+7.4	22
15	Valencia	15	6	3	6	+6	+3.5	21
16	Celta	15	5	5	5	+4	+3.2	20
17	Getafe	16	5	5	6	-1	-1.6	20
18	Cadiz	16	4	6	6	-8	-1.3	18
19	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	+0.5	14
20	Elche	15	1	4	10	-16	+0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	1	2	+19	+3.8	37
2	Real Madrid	16	10	1	5	+13	+3.5	31
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	3	3	+9	+2.0	30
4	Sociedad	16	8	3	5	+4	-1.6	27
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	4	5	+3	+2.9	22
6	Villarreal	16	6	3	7	+1	+0.5	21
7	Betis	15	6	3	6	-1	+2.1	21
8	Osasuna	16	4	7	5	-3	-5.7	19
9	Vallecano	15	4	5	6	-4	-1.7	17
10	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.9	16
11	Celta	15	4	4	7	-10	-1.2	16
12	Mallorca	16	4	3	9	-9	-5.6	15
13	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	-4.8	14
14	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-12	-2.4	14
15	Girona	15	2	5	8	-7	-4.8	11
16	Getafe	15	2	5	8	-11	-2.8	11
17	Valladolid	15	3	2	10	-22	-11.3	11
18	Valencia	15	2	3	10	-10	-5.7	9
19	Almeria	15	1	4	10	-18	-6.3	7
20	Elche	15	1	3	11	-25	-8.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.