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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Almeria

U T T U T

0–3

Full-time

Alaves

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 15%

29%

Points per game

0,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

67%

29%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,46 xG 1,87

64% Possession 36%

19 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 20. · Alaves 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	21	16	4	1	+26	+9.1	52
2	Real Madrid	20	16	3	1	+30	+16.9	51
3	Barcelona	20	13	5	2	+16	+25.8	44
4	Ath Madrid	20	13	2	5	+17	+11.1	41
5	Ath Bilbao	21	12	5	4	+17	+15.8	41
6	Sociedad	21	9	8	4	+11	+1.8	35
7	Valencia	21	9	5	7	+3	+0.6	32
8	Las Palmas	21	9	4	8	+4	-13.1	31
9	Betis	21	7	10	4	+0	-1.7	31
10	Getafe	20	6	8	6	-2	-4.0	26
11	Osasuna	20	7	4	9	-6	-4.3	25
12	Alaves	21	6	5	10	-8	+2.5	23
13	Vallecano	20	5	8	7	-8	-2.7	23
14	Mallorca	21	3	11	7	-6	-4.3	20
15	Villarreal	21	5	5	11	-14	-4.8	20
16	Celta	21	3	8	10	-10	-2.7	17
17	Sevilla	21	3	7	11	-9	-9.2	16
18	Cadiz	21	2	9	10	-16	-14.9	15
19	Granada	21	2	5	14	-20	-12.7	11
20	Almeria	21	0	6	15	-25	-9.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	1	0	+19	+14.8	28
2	Girona	11	9	1	1	+16	+5.8	28
3	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
4	Ath Bilbao	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.4	26
5	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
6	Betis	11	6	4	1	+7	+5.9	22
7	Valencia	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
8	Sociedad	10	5	4	1	+7	+0.6	19
9	Las Palmas	10	5	3	2	+6	-4.0	18
10	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
11	Alaves	10	5	1	4	+0	+6.7	16
12	Osasuna	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.1	15
13	Mallorca	10	2	7	1	+1	-0.5	13
14	Villarreal	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.4	11
15	Cadiz	10	2	5	3	-4	+1.3	11
16	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-3	-2.4	10
17	Granada	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.0	10
18	Celta	11	2	4	5	-6	+4.5	10
19	Vallecano	10	1	5	4	-9	-2.7	8
20	Almeria	10	0	5	5	-8	+1.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	10	7	3	0	+10	+3.3	24
2	Real Madrid	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.1	23
3	Barcelona	10	5	5	0	+6	+13.6	20
4	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+4	+1.2	16
5	Ath Bilbao	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.4	15
6	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
7	Ath Madrid	10	4	1	5	+5	+0.3	13
8	Las Palmas	11	4	1	6	-2	-9.0	13
9	Valencia	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.7	12
10	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-4	-4.2	10
11	Betis	10	1	6	3	-7	-7.6	9
12	Villarreal	10	2	3	5	-10	-7.2	9
13	Getafe	11	1	5	5	-5	-4.0	8
14	Celta	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.1	7
15	Mallorca	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.8	7
16	Alaves	11	1	4	6	-8	-4.3	7
17	Sevilla	10	1	3	6	-6	-6.8	6
18	Cadiz	11	0	4	7	-12	-16.2	4
19	Granada	10	0	1	9	-14	-9.8	1
20	Almeria	11	0	1	10	-17	-10.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.