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Serie A

Referee: A Giua

Napoli

T T T S S

2–3

Full-time

Lecce

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 27%

36%

18%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

55%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

59%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 10

7 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 11. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	23	17	3	3	+21	54
2	Inter	22	15	6	1	+26	51
3	Lazio	22	15	5	2	+32	50
4	Atalanta	23	12	6	5	+30	42
5	Roma	23	11	6	6	+12	39
6	Verona	23	9	7	7	+4	34
7	Bologna	23	9	6	8	+1	33
8	Cagliari	22	8	8	6	+4	32
9	Parma	22	9	5	8	+2	32
10	Milan	22	9	5	8	-4	32
11	Napoli	22	8	6	8	+3	30
12	Sassuolo	23	8	5	10	+0	29
13	Torino	23	8	3	12	-15	27
14	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-8	25
15	Udinese	22	7	3	12	-16	24
16	Sampdoria	23	6	5	12	-13	23
17	Lecce	22	4	7	11	-15	19
18	Genoa	22	3	7	12	-20	16
19	Brescia	22	4	3	15	-21	15
20	Spal	23	4	3	16	-23	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Lazio	12	9	3	0	+26	30
3	Inter	11	6	4	1	+11	22
4	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Parma	11	6	1	4	+7	19
6	Roma	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+13	17
8	Cagliari	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Udinese	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Napoli	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Milan	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
15	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Fiorentina	12	3	4	5	-4	13
17	Genoa	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Lecce	11	1	5	5	-3	8
19	Spal	11	2	2	7	-8	8
20	Brescia	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Juventus	12	7	2	3	+4	23
4	Roma	11	6	3	2	+9	21
5	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Milan	11	6	0	5	-2	18
7	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Napoli	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Cagliari	11	3	6	2	+0	15
10	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Torino	11	4	1	6	-4	13
12	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	Parma	11	3	4	4	-5	13
14	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	-4	12
15	Lecce	11	3	2	6	-12	11
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	11	3	1	7	-10	10
18	Udinese	11	2	1	8	-14	7
19	Spal	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Genoa	12	0	6	6	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.