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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Marseille

U T S U S

1–0

Full-time

Auxerre

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Auxerre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

56%

16%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

64%

40%

Both score Ø 42%

48%

36%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

2,1

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,82 xG 0,31

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Auxerre 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	18	3	4	+32	+29.3	57
2	Lens	25	18	2	5	+27	+18.3	56
3	Marseille	25	14	4	7	+19	+10.3	46
4	Lyon	25	14	4	7	+13	+7.8	46
5	Rennes	25	12	7	6	+7	-1.3	43
6	Lille	25	12	5	8	+6	+9.6	41
7	Monaco	25	12	4	9	+6	+5.9	40
8	Strasbourg	25	10	6	9	+9	+8.7	36
9	Brest	25	10	6	9	+0	+0.3	36
10	Lorient	25	8	10	7	-4	-1.5	34
11	Angers	25	9	5	11	-7	-15.8	32
12	Toulouse	25	8	7	10	+4	+3.6	31
13	Paris FC	25	6	9	10	-12	-12.4	27
14	Le Havre	25	6	8	11	-12	-10.3	26
15	Nice	25	6	6	13	-18	-10.2	24
16	Auxerre	25	4	7	14	-16	-7.7	19
17	Nantes	25	4	5	16	-20	-12.8	17
18	Metz	25	3	4	18	-34	-21.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	13	11	0	2	+18	+15.1	33
2	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
3	Lyon	12	9	1	2	+12	+9.7	28
4	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.1	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+8	+8.1	25
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
7	Brest	13	7	3	3	+7	+8.8	24
8	Lille	13	7	3	3	+6	+8.4	24
9	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.9	23
10	Lorient	12	6	5	1	+6	+4.5	23
11	Angers	12	6	2	4	+3	-3.6	20
12	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
13	Toulouse	13	4	5	4	+3	+5.3	17
14	Nice	13	4	5	4	-4	-0.4	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	13	3	3	7	-5	+1.2	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	13	2	2	9	-11	-6.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	12	7	2	3	+9	+3.2	23
3	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
4	Rennes	13	5	4	4	-4	-8.0	19
5	Lyon	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.9	18
6	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
7	Monaco	12	4	3	5	-2	-2.2	15
8	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
9	Paris FC	13	3	5	5	-5	-8.5	14
10	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-3	-3.2	13
11	Brest	12	3	3	6	-7	-8.5	12
12	Angers	13	3	3	7	-10	-12.2	12
13	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-10	-6.0	11
14	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
15	Auxerre	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.9	7
16	Nice	12	2	1	9	-14	-9.7	7
17	Le Havre	12	1	3	8	-15	-12.7	6
18	Metz	13	1	1	11	-25	-18.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.