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Eredivisie

Referee: M Vos

Almere City

U U U T T

1–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 28%

23%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

48%

71%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,6

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,83 xG 1,96

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 13. · Heerenveen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	27	3	1	+86	+64.1	84
2	Feyenoord	31	23	6	2	+56	+59.0	75
3	Twente	31	19	6	6	+28	+18.0	63
4	AZ Alkmaar	31	17	7	7	+27	+15.8	58
5	Ajax	31	13	10	8	+7	+9.5	49
6	Nijmegen	30	12	10	8	+12	-13.7	46
7	Sparta Rotterdam	31	12	7	12	+3	-6.3	43
8	Utrecht	30	11	10	9	+1	-3.5	43
9	Go Ahead Eagles	29	11	8	10	+4	-4.6	41
10	Heerenveen	31	10	6	15	-14	-6.0	36
11	Zwolle	31	9	8	14	-16	-11.9	35
12	For Sittard	31	9	8	14	-19	+1.9	35
13	Almere City	31	7	12	12	-20	-15.5	33
14	Heracles	31	9	5	17	-24	-21.9	32
15	Excelsior	31	5	11	15	-20	-13.4	26
16	Waalwijk	31	6	7	18	-21	-13.8	25
17	Vitesse	31	5	5	21	-45	-25.2	20
18	Volendam	31	4	7	20	-45	-32.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	1	0	+39	+34.0	43
2	Twente	16	13	1	2	+18	+16.2	40
3	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+32	+32.7	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	2	3	+22	+16.9	32
5	Ajax	16	8	6	2	+15	+11.6	30
6	Nijmegen	15	8	3	4	+11	+2.4	27
7	Go Ahead Eagles	16	7	4	5	+11	+5.4	25
8	For Sittard	15	7	4	4	+7	+13.2	25
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-4	+3.9	21
11	Heracles	15	6	3	6	-5	-6.1	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	5	6	-1	+2.1	20
13	Zwolle	16	5	3	8	-11	+2.9	18
14	Waalwijk	16	4	5	7	-5	-2.6	17
15	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-2	+2.5	16
16	Almere City	15	3	6	6	-9	-4.9	15
17	Vitesse	16	2	5	9	-15	-6.7	11
18	Volendam	15	3	2	10	-24	-8.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	13	2	1	+47	+30.1	41
2	Feyenoord	16	12	3	1	+24	+26.4	39
3	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.2	26
4	Twente	15	6	5	4	+10	+1.7	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	15	7	2	6	+4	-8.4	23
6	Utrecht	16	5	5	6	-4	-6.7	20
7	Nijmegen	15	4	7	4	+1	-16.1	19
8	Ajax	15	5	4	6	-8	-2.1	19
9	Almere City	16	4	6	6	-11	-10.6	18
10	Zwolle	15	4	5	6	-5	-14.8	17
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	15	4	3	8	-10	-9.9	15
13	Heracles	16	3	2	11	-19	-15.7	11
14	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	-15.9	10
15	For Sittard	16	2	4	10	-26	-11.3	10
16	Vitesse	15	3	0	12	-30	-18.5	9
17	Waalwijk	15	2	2	11	-16	-11.2	8
18	Volendam	16	1	5	10	-21	-23.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.