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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

S S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Maritimo

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 49%

78%

19%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

59%

37%

Both score Ø 48%

44%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

2,2

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 1. · Maritimo 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	21	3	3	+41	66
2	Benfica	28	20	5	3	+39	65
3	Sp Braga	27	15	4	8	+15	49
4	Sp Lisbon	26	14	4	8	+13	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	7	7	+4	46
6	Rio Ave	26	11	8	7	+9	41
7	Guimaraes	26	10	9	7	+15	39
8	Santa Clara	28	9	9	10	-6	36
9	Moreirense	27	8	11	8	+3	35
10	Gil Vicente	28	8	10	10	-6	34
11	Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
12	Vitoria Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
13	Boavista	26	7	8	11	-6	29
14	Belenenses	26	8	5	13	-18	29
15	Maritimo	27	5	12	10	-10	27
16	Tondela	27	6	9	12	-13	27
17	Pacos Ferreira	26	7	4	15	-16	25
18	Portimonense	28	3	13	12	-17	22
19	Aves	26	4	1	21	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	1	1	+24	34
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+22	32
3	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Famalicao	14	8	3	3	+6	27
5	Sp Lisbon	12	8	0	4	+7	24
6	Moreirense	13	6	4	3	+5	22
7	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+10	21
8	Rio Ave	14	5	5	4	+4	20
9	Gil Vicente	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Santa Clara	14	5	3	6	-5	18
11	Maritimo	14	3	7	4	+0	16
12	Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
13	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
14	Portimonense	14	2	8	4	-3	14
15	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Belenenses	13	4	2	7	-11	14
17	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-3	13
18	Aves	13	3	0	10	-10	9
19	Tondela	13	1	5	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	3	1	+17	33
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+17	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
4	Sp Braga	14	7	1	6	+6	22
5	Rio Ave	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-2	19
7	Tondela	14	5	4	5	-2	19
8	Guimaraes	13	4	6	3	+5	18
9	Santa Clara	14	4	6	4	-1	18
10	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-3	16
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	3	7	-6	15
12	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
13	Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
15	Moreirense	14	2	7	5	-2	13
16	Maritimo	13	2	5	6	-10	11
17	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	2	7	-11	11
18	Portimonense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
19	Aves	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.