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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Braga

S S T T U

3–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 44%

52%

36%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

52%

39%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

57%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Guimaraes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	30	23	4	3	+46	73
2	Benfica	30	21	5	4	+39	68
3	Sp Lisbon	28	16	4	8	+16	52
4	Sp Braga	29	15	5	9	+14	50
5	Rio Ave	30	14	8	8	+11	50
6	Famalicao	29	13	9	7	+4	48
7	Guimaraes	28	10	11	7	+15	41
8	Santa Clara	30	10	10	10	-5	40
9	Boavista	30	10	8	12	-5	38
10	Moreirense	30	8	13	9	+2	37
11	Gil Vicente	30	9	10	11	-4	37
12	Pacos Ferreira	29	9	4	16	-14	31
13	Maritimo	30	6	12	12	-11	30
14	Setubal	28	6	12	10	-13	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	12	10	-13	30
16	Tondela	30	7	9	14	-15	30
17	Belenenses	28	8	6	14	-19	30
18	Portimonense	30	4	14	12	-16	26
19	Aves	29	4	2	23	-32	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+29	40
2	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	10	0	4	+10	30
4	Famalicao	15	8	4	3	+6	28
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+8	27
6	Moreirense	15	6	5	4	+4	23
7	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+10	22
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	7	3	+3	22
9	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	+3	20
10	Maritimo	15	4	7	4	+1	19
11	Boavista	15	5	4	6	+1	19
12	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Portimonense	15	3	8	4	-2	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	2	8	-4	17
15	Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
17	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Tondela	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Aves	14	3	1	10	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+18	36
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+17	33
3	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sp Braga	15	7	2	6	+6	23
5	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
6	Santa Clara	15	5	6	4	+0	21
7	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	Guimaraes	14	4	7	3	+5	19
9	Tondela	15	5	4	6	-4	19
10	Boavista	15	5	4	6	-6	19
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
13	Moreirense	15	2	8	5	-2	14
14	Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Maritimo	15	2	5	8	-12	11
18	Portimonense	15	1	6	8	-14	9
19	Aves	15	1	1	13	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.