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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Burnley

S S U U T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

37%

20%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

57%

47%

Both score Ø 39%

37%

40%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

9 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 12. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	31	28	2	1	+49	86
2	Man City	30	20	3	7	+45	63
3	Leicester	31	16	7	8	+30	55
4	Chelsea	30	15	6	9	+13	51
5	Man United	31	13	10	8	+17	49
6	Wolves	31	12	13	6	+10	49
7	Tottenham	31	12	9	10	+9	45
8	Sheffield United	31	11	11	9	-1	44
9	Crystal Palace	31	11	9	11	-8	42
10	Everton	31	11	8	12	-8	41
11	Arsenal	30	9	13	8	+0	40
12	Burnley	30	11	6	13	-11	39
13	Newcastle	31	10	9	12	-13	39
14	Southampton	30	11	4	15	-14	37
15	Brighton	31	7	12	12	-7	33
16	Watford	30	6	10	14	-17	28
17	West Ham	31	7	6	18	-19	27
18	Bournemouth	31	7	6	18	-21	27
19	Aston Villa	31	7	6	18	-23	27
20	Norwich	31	5	6	20	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Man City	15	11	2	2	+29	35
3	Man United	16	9	5	2	+20	32
4	Leicester	16	9	4	3	+15	31
5	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+14	30
6	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Everton	15	7	5	3	+4	26
8	Wolves	16	6	7	3	+5	25
9	Newcastle	16	6	7	3	+3	25
10	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+7	24
11	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
12	Burnley	15	7	2	6	+1	23
13	Crystal Palace	15	6	4	5	-1	22
14	Brighton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
15	Watford	15	4	6	5	-1	18
16	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-7	18
17	Bournemouth	15	4	5	6	-6	17
18	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-5	15
19	Norwich	16	4	3	9	-11	15
20	Southampton	15	4	2	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+17	38
2	Man City	15	9	1	5	+16	28
3	Chelsea	15	8	3	4	+6	27
4	Leicester	15	7	3	5	+15	24
5	Wolves	15	6	6	3	+5	24
6	Southampton	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Sheffield United	16	4	8	4	-5	20
8	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-7	20
9	Man United	15	4	5	6	-3	17
10	Burnley	15	4	4	7	-12	16
11	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
12	Everton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
13	Arsenal	15	2	8	5	-6	14
14	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
15	Brighton	16	2	6	8	-10	12
16	West Ham	16	3	3	10	-14	12
17	Bournemouth	16	3	1	12	-15	10
18	Watford	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Aston Villa	16	2	3	11	-16	9
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.