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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Guimaraes

S S U S T

1–4

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,8

4,0

Scored

1,7

3,0

Conceded

0,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 61%

43%

79%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 36%

29%

43%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,1

2,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,73 xG 2,58

43% Possession 57%

17 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	14	1	0	+29	+20.0	43
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+31	+23.0	35
3	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+23	+17.6	35
4	Gil Vicente	15	7	5	3	+10	+4.8	26
5	Sp Braga	15	7	4	4	+13	+10.5	25
6	Famalicao	15	6	5	4	+8	+5.4	23
7	Guimaraes	14	6	3	5	-2	-2.0	21
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-3	-6.4	21
9	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	-3.8	17
10	Rio Ave	15	3	8	4	-5	-9.9	17
11	Alverca	15	5	2	8	-8	-1.7	17
12	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-4	-7.8	16
13	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	-4	+2.6	16
14	Estrela	15	3	6	6	-5	-1.0	15
15	Casa Pia	15	3	4	8	-13	-12.9	13
16	Arouca	15	3	4	8	-22	-18.6	13
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-18	-6.4	9
18	AVS	15	0	4	11	-28	-13.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+12	+9.9	19
2	Sp Lisbon	7	5	1	1	+20	+13.4	16
3	Benfica	8	4	4	0	+10	+11.3	16
4	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+7	+6.4	13
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+3.6	13
6	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
7	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+3	+0.5	12
8	Estoril	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.0	12
9	Famalicao	8	3	2	3	+6	+1.5	11
10	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.8	11
11	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-7	+2.3	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	+1	+4.8	9
13	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-9	-7.5	8
14	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	-4.1	6
15	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
16	Casa Pia	7	0	3	4	-8	-7.3	3
17	AVS	8	0	3	5	-9	-4.9	3
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+17	+10.1	24
2	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+13	+6.3	19
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	+9.5	19
4	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.2	13
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+6	+4.1	12
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.9	12
7	Rio Ave	8	2	5	1	+0	-5.5	11
8	Nacional	8	2	4	2	+1	-3.7	10
9	Casa Pia	8	3	1	4	-5	-5.6	10
10	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.8	8
12	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.9	7
13	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-10	-3.2	7
14	Estrela	7	1	3	3	-6	-5.8	6
15	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
16	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-13	-11.1	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-19	-8.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. May -25 Sp Lisbon – Guimaraes 2–0 3. Jan -25 Guimaraes – Sp Lisbon 4–4 21. Apr -24 Sp Lisbon – Guimaraes 3–0 9. Dec -23 Guimaraes – Sp Lisbon 3–2 24. Apr -23 Guimaraes – Sp Lisbon 0–2

Match report

Guimaraes Sp Lisbon

32′

⚽ Trincao 0–1

42′

⚽ F. Ioannidis 0–2

R. Mangas

Half-time 0–2

T. Arcanjo 🔁

↦ O. Camara

46′

D. Sousa 🔁

↦ M. Mitrovic

46′

1–2 T. Arcanjo ⚽

D. Sousa

50′

58′

🟨 Maximiliano Araújo

João Mendes 🟨

62′

63′

⚽ J. Castillo 2–2

own goal

N. Oliveira 🔁

↦ Samu

67′

76′

🟨 Eduardo Quaresma

77′

🔁 H. Morita

↦ J. Simoes

79′

⚽ M. Araujo 2–3

F. Blanco 🔁

↦ N. Saviolo

80′

Fabio Blanco 🟨

84′

🔁 Alisson Santos

↦ M. Araujo

84′

🔁 S. Blopa

↦ F. Ioannidis

R. Rocha 🔁

↦ G. Nogueira

85′

Nélson Oliveira 🟥

87′

🟨 Salvador Blopa

90′

🟨 Morten Hjulmand

90′

🟨 Iván Fresneda

93′

🔁 Matheus Reis

↦ I. Fresneda

93′

🔁 F. Goncalves

↦ Trincao

Rodrigo Abascal 🟨

96′

Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Guimaraes

4-4-2

J. Castillo G

Maga D

Thiago Balieiro D

26 R. Abascal D

J. I. Mendes D

Samu M

M. Mitrovic M

G. Nogueira M

N. Saviolo M

A. Ndoye F

O. Camara F

Bench (9)

27 Charles Silva

3 M. Nobrega

7 N. Oliveira

17 O. Lebedenko

18 T. Arcanjo

22 F. Blanco

23 D. Sousa

66 T. Strata

80 R. Rocha

Coach: Luis Pinto

Sp Lisbon

4-4-2

R. Silva G

I. Fresneda D

E. Quaresma D

G. Inacio D

R. Mangas D

17 Trincao M

M. Hjulmand M

J. Simoes M

M. Araujo M

F. Ioannidis F

L. Suarez F

Bench (9)

12 J. Virginia

2 Matheus Reis

5 H. Morita

13 G. Vagiannidis

14 G. Kochorashvili

27 Alisson Santos

28 R. Ribeiro

58 F. Goncalves

70 S. Blopa

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

7,34

🔒

4,41

🔒

B ✓

1,39

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

1,82

🔒

U2,5

1,88

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

17. Dec TP 9 months ago

13. Dec PL 9 months ago

8. Dec PL 9 months ago

28. Nov PL 9 months ago

22. Nov TP 10 months ago

Referee

Miguel Nogueira · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,6 / match

Below average

⚽ Free kicks

26,9 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Recent head-to-head meetings

Match report

Line-ups

Guimaraes

Sp Lisbon

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee