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League Cup

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Arsenal

S T S S S

1–1

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,84 xG 0,92

69% Possession 31%

25 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 1

12 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 13. · Crystal Palace 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	5	4	0	1	+4	+1.7	12
2	Newcastle	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.1	9
3	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
4	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.5	9
5	Wycombe	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.4	8
6	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+5	+0.1	7
7	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.4	7
8	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.1	7
9	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
10	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
11	Grimsby	4	2	1	1	-2	+1.8	7
12	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
13	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
14	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
15	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
16	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
17	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
18	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
19	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
20	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
21	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
22	Port Vale	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
23	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
24	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	–	4
25	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
26	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
27	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
28	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
29	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
30	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
32	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
34	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
35	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
37	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
38	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
39	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
40	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
41	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
42	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
43	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
44	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
45	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
46	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
47	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
48	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
49	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
51	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
55	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
57	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
58	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
59	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
60	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
61	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
62	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
63	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
64	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
65	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
68	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
69	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
70	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
71	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
72	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
73	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
74	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
75	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
76	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
77	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
78	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
79	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
80	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
81	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
82	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
83	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
84	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
85	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
86	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
87	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
89	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
90	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
91	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
92	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.1	9
2	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
3	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
4	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
5	Cardiff	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.1	6
6	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
7	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
8	Wrexham	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
9	Grimsby	3	1	1	1	-3	+1.8	4
10	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
12	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
13	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
14	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
16	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
17	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
18	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
19	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
20	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
21	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
24	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
25	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
26	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
27	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
28	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
29	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
30	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
31	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Wycombe	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
38	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
39	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
40	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
41	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
42	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
44	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
45	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
46	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
48	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
50	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
51	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
52	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
53	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
54	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
56	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
57	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
59	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.5	9
2	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
3	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
4	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+5	+0.1	6
5	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.4	6
6	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
7	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
8	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
9	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
10	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
12	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
13	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
14	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
17	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
18	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
20	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
21	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
22	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
24	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
26	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
27	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
33	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
35	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
36	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
37	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
38	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
39	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
42	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
43	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
45	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
46	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
47	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
48	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
50	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
51	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
52	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
53	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
54	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
55	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
60	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -25 Arsenal – Crystal Palace 1–0 23. Apr -25 Arsenal – Crystal Palace 2–2 21. Dec -24 Crystal Palace – Arsenal 1–5 18. Dec -24 Arsenal – Crystal Palace 3–2 20. Jan -24 Arsenal – Crystal Palace 5–0

Match report

Arsenal Crystal Palace

Half-time 0–0

46′

🔁 N. Clyne

↦ J. Canvot

46′

🔁 J. Devenny

↦ E. Nketiah

L. Trossard 🔁

↦ G. Martinelli

59′

B. Saka 🔁

↦ N. Madueke

67′

M. Odegaard 🔁

↦ E. Eze

67′

75′

🔁 W. Hughes

↦ C. Richards

0–1 M. Lacroix ⚽

own goal

80′

D. Rice 🔁

↦ Gabriel Jesus

86′

🔁 C. Uche

↦ Y. Pino

Kepa Arrizabalaga 🟨

89′

90′

⚽ M. Guehi 0–2

J. Lerma

101′

🔁 B. Sosa

↦ T. Mitchell

Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3

K. Arrizabalaga G

J. Timber D

2 W. Saliba D

R. Calafiori D

M. Lewis-Skelly D

M. Merino M

16 C. Norgaard M

E. Eze M

N. Madueke F

Gabriel Jesus F

11 G. Martinelli F

Bench (9)

1 D. Raya

7 B. Saka

8 M. Odegaard

14 V. Gyökeres

19 L. Trossard

22 E. Nwaneri

36 M. Zubimendi

41 D. Rice

89 M. Salmon

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

W. Benitez G

C. Richards D

M. Lacroix D

M. Guehi D

J. Canvot M

A. Wharton M

J. Lerma M

T. Mitchell M

E. Nketiah F

Y. Pino F

J. Mateta F

Bench (9)

1 D. Henderson

12 C. Uche

17 N. Clyne

19 W. Hughes

21 R. Esse

24 B. Sosa

42 K. Rodney

55 J. Devenny

86 J. Drakes-Thomas

Coach: Oliver Glasner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

U ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

20. Dec PL 9 months ago

13. Dec PL 9 months ago

10. Dec CL 9 months ago

6. Dec PL 9 months ago

3. Dec PL 9 months ago

Referee

Stuart Attwell · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

3,6 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

18,0 / match

Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Recent head-to-head meetings

Match report

Line-ups

Arsenal

Crystal Palace

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee