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Primeira Liga

Referee: D Rosa

Alverca

U T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

30%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

53%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,06 xG 0,88

36% Possession 64%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 10. · Arouca 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	30	25	4	1	+47	+37.4	79
2	Benfica	30	21	9	0	+44	+35.2	72
3	Sp Lisbon	29	22	5	2	+55	+38.2	71
4	Sp Braga	30	16	8	6	+29	+24.0	56
5	Famalicao	30	13	9	8	+11	+9.8	48
6	Gil Vicente	30	12	10	8	+13	+10.2	46
7	Guimaraes	30	11	6	13	-7	-3.6	39
8	Moreirense	30	11	6	13	-8	-15.9	39
9	Estoril	30	10	7	13	+0	-9.6	37
10	Alverca	30	9	8	13	-16	-1.7	35
11	Arouca	30	10	5	15	-20	-18.2	35
12	Rio Ave	30	8	10	12	-17	-16.2	34
13	Santa Clara	30	7	8	15	-11	-2.6	29
14	Nacional	30	7	7	16	-9	-12.1	28
15	Estrela	30	6	10	14	-16	-10.1	28
16	Casa Pia	30	5	11	14	-25	-24.2	26
17	Tondela	29	4	9	16	-27	-13.0	21
18	AVS	30	1	10	19	-43	-27.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	12	3	0	+25	+21.5	39
2	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+25	+22.5	35
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+33	+23.8	34
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+16	+14.0	28
5	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
6	Gil Vicente	15	8	3	4	+12	+6.5	27
7	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
8	Estoril	15	6	5	4	+6	-4.8	23
9	Moreirense	15	7	2	6	-2	-7.1	23
10	Alverca	15	6	4	5	-6	+6.0	22
11	Arouca	15	6	3	6	-5	-5.9	21
12	Nacional	15	5	2	8	-1	-3.8	17
13	Estrela	15	4	5	6	-2	+2.0	17
14	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	+1.6	17
15	Casa Pia	15	2	8	5	-7	-10.5	14
16	Rio Ave	15	3	5	7	-9	-3.1	14
17	Tondela	15	1	7	7	-8	-4.8	10
18	AVS	15	1	5	9	-14	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+22	+15.9	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+22	+14.4	37
3	Benfica	15	11	4	0	+19	+12.7	37
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+13	+9.9	28
5	Famalicao	15	5	6	4	-3	+0.1	21
6	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-8	-13.1	20
7	Gil Vicente	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.6	19
8	Moreirense	15	4	4	7	-6	-8.8	16
9	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	-4.8	14
10	Guimaraes	15	4	2	9	-13	-2.6	14
11	Arouca	15	4	2	9	-15	-12.2	14
12	Alverca	15	3	4	8	-10	-7.6	13
13	Santa Clara	15	2	6	7	-8	-4.2	12
14	Casa Pia	15	3	3	9	-18	-13.7	12
15	Nacional	15	2	5	8	-8	-8.3	11
16	Estrela	15	2	5	8	-14	-12.1	11
17	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-19	-8.2	11
18	AVS	15	0	5	10	-29	-16.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.