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2. Bundesliga

Referee: T Bauer

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T T T

3–1

Full-time

Dresden

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

53%

70%

Both score Ø 62%

53%

70%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,15 xG 1,29

34% Possession 66%

9 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 17. · Dresden 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	30	18	7	5	+19	+14.8	61
2	Paderborn	30	17	7	6	+17	+15.4	58
3	Elversberg	30	16	7	7	+20	+7.2	55
4	Hannover	30	15	9	6	+14	+12.4	54
5	Darmstadt	30	13	11	6	+15	+2.7	50
6	Hertha	30	13	9	8	+9	-3.8	48
7	Kaiserslautern	30	14	4	12	+5	-1.0	46
8	Karlsruhe	30	11	7	12	-9	-20.4	40
9	Nurnberg	30	10	8	12	-2	+0.3	38
10	Bochum	30	9	9	12	+0	+4.2	36
11	Dresden	30	9	8	13	+2	+0.9	35
12	Holstein Kiel	30	9	8	13	-4	-10.0	35
13	Magdeburg	30	10	3	17	-7	+7.6	33
14	Greuther Furth	30	9	6	15	-20	-10.7	33
15	Bielefeld	30	8	8	14	-2	+2.4	32
16	Braunschweig	30	8	7	15	-18	-2.3	31
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	30	9	4	17	-20	-5.5	31
18	Preußen Münster	30	6	10	14	-19	-14.2	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	15	11	3	1	+13	+8.6	36
2	Darmstadt	15	10	4	1	+17	+8.5	34
3	Paderborn	15	10	2	3	+9	+11.5	32
4	Kaiserslautern	15	10	1	4	+16	+4.8	31
5	Elversberg	15	9	4	2	+14	+5.7	31
6	Karlsruhe	14	8	3	3	+7	-5.3	27
7	Bochum	15	7	4	4	+8	+10.2	25
8	Nurnberg	15	7	4	4	+6	+2.9	25
9	Hannover	15	7	4	4	+4	+7.9	25
10	Bielefeld	15	6	4	5	+8	+12.4	22
11	Hertha	15	5	5	5	-2	-1.0	20
12	Braunschweig	16	5	5	6	-7	+3.4	20
13	Holstein Kiel	15	5	4	6	+3	+0.1	19
14	Greuther Furth	15	5	4	6	-8	-4.1	19
15	Dresden	15	5	3	7	+6	+7.8	18
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	5	3	7	-8	-1.2	18
17	Preußen Münster	15	3	7	5	-3	-3.2	16
18	Magdeburg	15	4	2	9	-5	+7.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	15	8	5	2	+10	+4.5	29
2	Hertha	15	8	4	3	+11	-2.8	28
3	Paderborn	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.9	26
4	Schalke 04	15	7	4	4	+6	+6.2	25
5	Elversberg	15	7	3	5	+6	+1.5	24
6	Magdeburg	15	6	1	8	-2	+0.1	19
7	Dresden	15	4	5	6	-4	-6.9	17
8	Darmstadt	15	3	7	5	-2	-5.8	16
9	Holstein Kiel	15	4	4	7	-7	-10.0	16
10	Kaiserslautern	15	4	3	8	-11	-5.8	15
11	Greuther Furth	15	4	2	9	-12	-6.6	14
12	Nurnberg	15	3	4	8	-8	-2.7	13
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	1	10	-12	-4.3	13
14	Karlsruhe	16	3	4	9	-16	-15.1	13
15	Preußen Münster	15	3	3	9	-16	-11.0	12
16	Bochum	15	2	5	8	-8	-6.0	11
17	Braunschweig	14	3	2	9	-11	-5.7	11
18	Bielefeld	15	2	4	9	-10	-10.0	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.