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La Liga

Referee: A Quintero

Levante

U S U T T

20:00 Wednesday 21. October

Ath Bilbao

T S S U U

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The model's reading of the match in plain language: expected goals, favourite probability and what the form says.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Levante Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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🔒 Where the model differs from the market Pro

The markets where our estimate differs most from the odds — the core of Pro.

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The table now Levante 17. · Ath Bilbao 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	+3.3	16
3	Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	+0.3	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	+10.4	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.6	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+5	+3.1	11
7	La Coruna	7	2	4	1	+2	-1.6	10
8	Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	-3.2	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	+0.6	8
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.2	8
12	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	-5.0	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	-0.6	8
14	Celta	7	1	4	2	+2	-2.6	7
15	Espanol	7	2	1	4	+0	-1.5	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	-2.8	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.0	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	-6.3	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	-0.1	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	-9	-3.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+7	+1.5	10
2	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+10.5	9
3	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+10	+5.9	9
4	Alaves	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.5	9
5	Betis	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.1	9
6	Getafe	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.5	8
7	Santander	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.9	7
8	Vallecano	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.6	7
9	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.3	6
10	Ath Bilbao	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.8	5
11	La Coruna	4	1	2	1	+1	-0.9	5
12	Osasuna	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.4	5
13	Celta	4	1	1	2	+2	-3.0	4
14	Espanol	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.4	4
15	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.7	4
16	Levante	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
17	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.6	3
18	Malaga	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.8	2
19	Valencia	4	0	1	3	-7	+0.3	1
20	Elche	3	0	0	3	-7	-6.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+14	+3.8	12
2	Sevilla	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.8	7
3	Betis	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.4	7
4	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.8	6
5	Real Madrid	4	2	0	2	+0	+4.5	6
6	Sociedad	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.4	6
7	Elche	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.2	5
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	+1	+2.2	5
9	La Coruna	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.7	5
10	Espanol	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.1	3
11	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
12	Celta	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
13	Valencia	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
14	Osasuna	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.0	3
15	Alaves	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
16	Levante	4	0	2	2	-5	-0.7	2
17	Vallecano	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
18	Malaga	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.1	1
19	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.7	0
20	Santander	4	0	0	4	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Feb -26 Ath Bilbao – Levante 4–2 29. Nov -25 Levante – Ath Bilbao 0–2 7. Mar -22 Ath Bilbao – Levante 3–1 19. Nov -21 Levante – Ath Bilbao 0–0 26. Feb -21 Levante – Ath Bilbao 1–1

Line-ups

Levante

4-3-3

M. Ryan G

Nacho Pérez D

Dela D

IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe D

Manu Sánchez D

Jon Ander Olasagasti M

Oriol Rey M

E. Bardeli M

Paco Cortés F

Iván Romero F

T. Fernández F

Bench (12)

6 Reque

33 M. Santos

16 A. Tape

10 P. Ratkov

22 J. Toljan

7 Brugui

11 Yanis Musuayi

14 Jorge Cabello

1 Pablo Cuñat

17 Víctor García

36 I. Galdin

2 A. Mandi

Coach: Luís Castro

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1

Unai Simón G

J. Louis-Jean D

Aitor Paredes D

Aymeric Laporte D

Yuri D

Ruíz de Galarreta M

Mikel Jauregizar M

Robert Navarro M

Oihan Sancet M

Álex Berenguer M

Maroan Sannadi F

Bench (12)

12 Jesús Areso

24 Beñat Gerenabarrena

11 Gorka Guruzeta

13 Álex Padilla

6 Beñat Prados

20 Alejandro Rego

15 Hugo Rincón

22 Nico Serrano

9 I. Williams

10 Nico Williams

5 Yeray

25 Álvaro Djaló

Coach: E. Terzić

May be missing

Injuries and suspensions reported before the match. The final squad is only confirmed with the line-ups.

Levante

Etta Eyong Injury

A. Primo Shoulder Injury

Hugo Sotelo Knee Injury

Ath Bilbao

U. Egiluz Knee Injury

D. Vivian Hamstring Injury

Peio Canales Muscle Injury

Gorka Guruzeta Hamstring Injury

Odds comparison

Bookmaker odds fetched 5 days ago — the market may have moved since.

1X2

3,40

🔒

Betano 3,45 Pinnacle 3,45 1xBet 3,41 Bet365 3,40 Betfair 3,40 Marathonbet 3,34 BetVictor 3,30 William Hill 3,30 SBO 2,98

3,50

🔒

1xBet 3,66 Pinnacle 3,60 BetVictor 3,60 Marathonbet 3,58 Bet365 3,50 Betfair 3,40 Betano 3,35 William Hill 3,30 SBO 3,05

2,17

🔒

1xBet 2,23 Betfair 2,20 Betano 2,18 Marathonbet 2,18 Pinnacle 2,17 SBO 2,14 Bet365 2,10 BetVictor 2,10 William Hill 2,10

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,25

🔒

U1,5

3,75

🔒

O2,5

1,83

🔒

U2,5

2,02

🔒

O3,5

2,88

🔒

U3,5

1,37

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

1,63

🔒

BLS nei

2,15

🔒

Why do we recommend this?

Over 2.5 goals in the match (Tips of the week — medium risk) — The model expects around 2,9 goals in the match (1,5 from Levante, 1,4 from Ath Bilbao). In Levante's recent matches there have been an average of 3,4 goals, in Ath Bilbao's 1,8. The market prices this at about 55 % — our model calculates 58 %, so the odds of 1,83 pay better than the risk suggests in our assessment.

Levante wins (Tips of the week — high risk) — Levante is priced at about 29 % by the market, while our model — based on the balance of strength (1,5–1,4 in expected goals) and form — calculates 41 %. In Levante's recent matches there have been an average of 3,4 goals, in Ath Bilbao's 1,8.