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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Nobre

Porto

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T U U T S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

70% Possession 30%

23 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 1. · Moreirense 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.4	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	+4.3	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.5	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+8	+6.7	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.1	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.8	5
9	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	-3.3	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.3	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-2	+4.1	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.1	2
16	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	-11	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.4	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.0	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
8	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
9	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
11	Alverca	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.4	2
12	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
13	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
16	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
3	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
6	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
9	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.2	3
10	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
15	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
16	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Mar -26 Porto – Moreirense 3–0 27. Oct -25 Moreirense – Porto 1–2 2. May -25 Porto – Moreirense 3–1 21. Dec -24 Moreirense – Porto 0–3 24. Nov -24 Moreirense – Porto 2–1

Match report

Porto Moreirense

20′

⚽ Dinis Pinto 0–1

1–1 Jan Bednarek ⚽

William Gomes

37′

44′

🟨 João Veloso

Half-time 2–1

2–1 William Gomes ⚽

Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa

58′

Francisco Moura 🟨

63′

Hwang In-Beom 🔁

↦ Gabri Veiga

64′

Martim Fernandes 🔁

↦ Francisco Moura

64′

67′

🔁 Rodrigo Alonso

↦ Manuel Mendonça

67′

🔁 Mateja Stjepanović

↦ Nile John

68′

🟨 Dinis Pinto

75′

🔁 Tiago Andrade

↦ Landerson Costa Araújo

75′

🔁 Kiko Bondoso

↦ João Veloso

Borja Sainz 🔁

↦ William Gomes

75′

Santiago Giménez 🔁

↦ André Silva

75′

79′

🔁 Yan Maranhão

↦ Alexandre Parsemain

88′

ℹ️ Guilherme Liberato

VAR: Card upgrade cancelled

90′

🟥 Guilherme Liberato

Seko Fofana 🔁

↦ Victor Froholdt

90′

Nehuén Pérez 🔁

↦ Alberto Costa

91′

93′

🔁 Leandro Santos

↦ Dinis Pinto

Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3

Diogo Costa G

Alberto Baio D

J. Bednarek D

J. Kiwior D

Francisco Moura D

Victor Mow Froholdt M

P. Rosario M

Gabri Veiga M

William F

André Silva F

Pepê Aquino F

Bench (12)

14 Cláudio Ramos

22 A. Varela

24 Andorinha

57 Duarte Cunha

52 Martim Fernandes

42 S. Fofana

29 S. Giménez

16 Hwang In-Beom

18 N. Pérez

21 D. Prpić

17 Borja Sainz

33 Souza

Coach: F. Farioli

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

André Ferreira G

Dinis Pinto D

Gilberto Batista D

Maracás D

Kiko D

N. John M

Guilherme Liberato M

Landerson M

João Veloso M

Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça M

A. Duville-Parsemain F

Bench (11)

99 Maranhão

89 Afonso Vieira

8 M. Stjepanović

2 Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos

21 Rodri Alonso

17 Álvaro Martínez

4 Kevyn Monteiro

10 Kiko Bondoso

1 Aranha

19 Tiago Andrade

32 Janderson

Coach: Vasco Costa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,13

🔒

Superbet 1,19 10Bet 1,17 Betano 1,17 SBO 1,16 Dafabet 1,15 Unibet 1,14 Pinnacle 1,14 1xBet 1,13 Betfair 1,13 Bet365 1,12 Marathonbet 1,12 William Hill 1,12 BetVictor 1,11

7,23

🔒

1xBet 9,75 Pinnacle 8,75 Betfair 8,50 Dafabet 8,20 Marathonbet 8,00 William Hill 8,00 Betano 7,90 Unibet 7,50 Bet365 7,00 BetVictor 7,00 Superbet 6,80 10Bet 6,00 SBO 5,51

18,35

🔒

1xBet 24,00 10Bet 23,00 Betano 23,00 Dafabet 22,00 Bet365 21,00 Betfair 21,00 Pinnacle 20,34 BetVictor 19,00 William Hill 19,00 Unibet 18,00 Marathonbet 18,00 Superbet 14,00 SBO 10,12

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,18

🔒