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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Porto

S T S S S

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,92 xG 0,54

53% Possession 47%

23 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 5. · Arouca 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.1	7
2	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
4	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
5	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+7	+5.0	4
7	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.1	4
8	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	+4.7	3
9	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.3	3
10	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
11	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.5	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
13	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.1	1
14	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.8	1
15	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
16	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
3	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
6	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
11	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
13	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
15	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
3	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
4	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
6	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
8	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
10	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
12	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
13	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
16	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.