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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Real Madrid
S T S S T
2–0
Full-time
Chelsea
S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,2
Scored
2,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 69%
75%
63%
Points per game
2,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
63%
38%
Both score Ø 51%
63%
38%
Average goals
3,6
2,1
Scored
2,6
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,28 xG 0,66
57% Possession 43%
18 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Real Madrid Chelsea
5′
🟨 Wesley Fofana
Eduardo Camavinga 🟨
7′
1–0 K. Benzema ⚽
21′
Half-time 1–0
55′
🔁 Marc Cucurella
↦ K. Koulibaly
59′
🟥 Ben Chilwell
65′
🔁 K. Havertz
↦ R. Sterling
65′
🔁 T. Chalobah
↦ João Félix
A. Rüdiger 🔁
↦ E. Camavinga
71′
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
71′
2–0 Marco Asensio ⚽
Vinícius Júnior
74′
75′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ N. Kanté
76′
🔁 M. Mount
↦ Thiago Silva
Dani Ceballos 🔁
↦ L. Modrić
81′
Éder Militão 🟨
83′
A. Tchouaméni 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
84′
Daniel Carvajal 🟨
87′
87′
🟨 Mateo Kovačić
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 D. Alaba D
12 E. Camavinga D
15 F. Valverde M
8 T. Kroos M
10 L. Modrić M
21 Rodrygo F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
22 A. Rüdiger
11 Marco Asensio
19 Dani Ceballos
18 A. Tchouaméni
5 Vallejo
6 Nacho
13 A. Lunin
7 E. Hazard
24 M. Díaz
17 Lucas Vázquez
16 Odriozola
26 Luis López

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Chelsea

3-5-2
1 Kepa G
33 W. Fofana D
6 Thiago Silva D
26 K. Koulibaly D
24 R. James M
7 N. Kanté M
5 E. Fernández M
8 M. Kovačić M
21 B. Chilwell M
17 R. Sterling F
11 João Félix F
Bench (12)
32 Marc Cucurella
29 K. Havertz
14 T. Chalobah
23 C. Gallagher
19 M. Mount
16 É. Mendy
15 M. Mudryk
10 C. Pulišić
22 H. Ziyech
20 D. Zakaria
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
28 César Azpilicueta

Coach: F. Lampard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.