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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Milan
U U T S U
1–0
Full-time
Napoli
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 69%
50%
88%
Points per game
1,8
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 32%
25%
38%
Average goals
2,5
3,9
Scored
1,6
3,1
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,13 xG 1,34
47% Possession 53%
12 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 10
1 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

2. Apr -23 Napoli – Milan 0–4 18. Sep -22 Milan – Napoli 1–2 6. Mar -22 Napoli – Milan 0–1 19. Dec -21 Milan – Napoli 0–1 14. Mar -21 Milan – Napoli 0–1

Match report

Milan Napoli
38′
🟨 Piotr Zieliński
1–0 I. Bennacer ⚽
Brahim Díaz
40′
Half-time 1–0
Ismaël Bennacer 🟨
60′
A. Saelemaekers 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
67′
69′
🔁 G. Raspadori
↦ H. Lozano
70′
🟨 Frank Anguissa
70′
🟨 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
74′
🟨 Frank Anguissa
74′
🟥 Frank Anguissa
78′
🟨 Min-jae Kim
A. Rebić 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
80′
80′
🔁 T. Ndombélé
↦ P. Zieliński
81′
🔁 M. Politano
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
81′
🔁 M. Olivera
↦ Mário Rui
Alexis Saelemaekers 🟨
93′
93′
🟨 Amir Rrahmani
Davide Calabria 🟨
96′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
24 S. Kjær D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
33 R. Krunić M
8 S. Tonali M
10 Brahim Díaz M
4 I. Bennacer M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
56 A. Saelemaekers
12 A. Rebić
27 D. Origi
32 T. Pobega
28 M. Thiaw
20 P. Kalulu
83 A. Mirante
25 A. Florenzi
5 F. Ballo
30 Junior Messias
46 M. Gabbia
90 C. De Ketelaere

Coach: S. Pioli

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 A. Rrahmani D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
6 Mário Rui D
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
11 H. Lozano F
7 E. Elmas F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (10)
81 G. Raspadori
91 T. Ndombélé
21 M. Politano
17 M. Olivera
55 L. Østigård
95 P. Gollini
19 B. Bereszyński
5 Juan Jesus
70 G. Gaetano
16 H. Idasiak

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.