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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Man City
S S S U S
4–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
2,5
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 64%
55%
73%
Points per game
2,1
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
55%
45%
Both score Ø 50%
45%
55%
Average goals
2,9
3,2
Scored
2,5
2,4
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,82 xG 0,47
59% Possession 41%
16 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 3
16 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. May -23 Real Madrid – Man City 1–1

Match report

Man City Real Madrid
1–0 Bernardo Silva ⚽
K. De Bruyne
23′
2–0 Bernardo Silva ⚽
37′
Half-time 2–0
Rúben Dias 🟨
50′
55′
🟨 Daniel Carvajal
İlkay Gündoğan 🟨
62′
63′
🔁 A. Rüdiger
↦ L. Modrić
70′
🔁 Marco Asensio
↦ T. Kroos
75′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
3–0 M. Akanji ⚽
K. De Bruyne
76′
R. Mahrez 🔁
↦ İ. Gündoğan
79′
79′
🔁 A. Tchouaméni
↦ E. Camavinga
79′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Rodrygo
80′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Dani Carvajal
P. Foden 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
84′
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
89′
Jack Grealish 🟨
91′
4–0 J. Álvarez ⚽
P. Foden
91′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Man City

3-2-4-1
31 Ederson G
2 K. Walker D
3 Rúben Dias D
25 M. Akanji D
5 J. Stones M
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva F
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (10)
26 R. Mahrez
47 P. Foden
19 J. Álvarez
21 Sergio Gómez
80 C. Palmer
4 K. Phillips
18 S. Ortega
82 R. Lewis
14 Aymeric Laporte
33 S. Carson

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 D. Alaba D
12 E. Camavinga D
15 F. Valverde M
8 T. Kroos M
10 L. Modrić M
21 Rodrygo F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
22 A. Rüdiger
11 Marco Asensio
18 A. Tchouaméni
19 Dani Ceballos
17 Lucas Vázquez
6 Nacho
23 F. Mendy
13 A. Lunin
5 Vallejo
24 M. Díaz
7 E. Hazard
16 Odriozola

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.