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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Real Madrid

S S S S T

4–2

Full-time

Almeria

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 47%

65%

29%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 63%

58%

68%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,83 xG 1,34

68% Possession 32%

15 Shots 9

12 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 0

8 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Almeria 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	24	4	3	+44	+10.8	76
2	Real Madrid	31	20	5	6	+37	+17.1	65
3	Ath Madrid	31	19	6	6	+27	+12.8	63
4	Sociedad	32	17	7	8	+12	+3.3	58
5	Villarreal	31	15	5	11	+11	+8.4	50
6	Betis	31	14	7	10	+6	+3.3	49
7	Ath Bilbao	31	13	7	11	+11	+2.4	46
8	Osasuna	32	12	8	12	-5	-9.1	44
9	Vallecano	32	11	10	11	-3	-4.6	43
10	Girona	31	11	8	12	+3	-2.4	41
11	Sevilla	31	11	8	12	-7	+2.3	41
12	Mallorca	31	11	7	13	-4	-3.1	40
13	Celta	31	10	9	12	-5	+1.9	39
14	Valladolid	31	10	5	16	-23	-12.0	35
15	Valencia	31	9	6	16	-3	-2.2	33
16	Almeria	31	9	6	16	-15	-6.6	33
17	Cadiz	31	7	11	13	-20	-3.7	32
18	Getafe	31	7	10	14	-12	-4.4	31
19	Espanol	31	6	10	15	-16	-7.2	28
20	Elche	32	3	7	22	-38	-7.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	3	0	+26	+6.8	39
2	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+24	+13.6	34
3	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+18	+10.8	33
4	Girona	16	9	3	4	+10	+2.4	30
5	Villarreal	15	9	2	4	+10	+7.9	29
6	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
7	Sociedad	15	8	4	3	+6	+4.9	28
8	Vallecano	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.0	26
9	Almeria	16	8	2	6	+3	-0.4	26
10	Mallorca	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.5	25
11	Osasuna	16	8	1	7	-2	-3.5	25
12	Ath Bilbao	16	7	3	6	+8	-0.5	24
13	Valencia	16	7	3	6	+7	+3.5	24
14	Valladolid	15	7	3	5	+0	-0.6	24
15	Celta	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.2	23
16	Sevilla	15	6	4	5	+1	+7.4	22
17	Getafe	16	5	5	6	-1	-1.6	20
18	Cadiz	16	4	6	6	-8	-1.3	18
19	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	+0.5	14
20	Elche	16	2	4	10	-12	+2.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+18	+4.0	37
2	Real Madrid	16	10	1	5	+13	+3.5	31
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	3	3	+9	+2.0	30
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	4	5	+3	+2.9	22
6	Villarreal	16	6	3	7	+1	+0.5	21
7	Betis	15	6	3	6	-1	+2.1	21
8	Osasuna	16	4	7	5	-3	-5.7	19
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-8	-5.2	19
10	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-8	-3.6	17
11	Celta	15	4	4	7	-10	-1.2	16
12	Mallorca	16	4	3	9	-9	-5.6	15
13	Espanol	16	3	5	8	-9	-7.7	14
14	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-12	-2.4	14
15	Girona	15	2	5	8	-7	-4.8	11
16	Getafe	15	2	5	8	-11	-2.8	11
17	Valladolid	16	3	2	11	-23	-11.4	11
18	Valencia	15	2	3	10	-10	-5.7	9
19	Almeria	15	1	4	10	-18	-6.3	7
20	Elche	16	1	3	12	-26	-8.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.