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Champions League
Referee: I Peljto
RB Leipzig
T T T S U
0–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,7
Scored
1,5
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,8
Scored
2,2
2,7
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,37 xG 1,43
50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 15
9 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 9
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -22 RB Leipzig – Real Madrid 3–2 14. Sep -22 Real Madrid – RB Leipzig 2–0

Match report

RB Leipzig Real Madrid
Half-time 0–1
48′
⚽ Brahim Díaz 0–1
Dani Carvajal
Mohamed Simakan 🟨
53′
66′
🟨 Daniel Carvajal
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ L. Openda
75′
A. Haidara 🔁
↦ B. Henrichs
75′
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ Dani Olmo
76′
Yussuf Poulsen 🟨
77′
84′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Brahim Díaz
84′
🔁 Joselu
↦ Rodrygo
Benjamin Šeško 🟨
85′
85′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
K. Kampl 🔁
↦ X. Schlager
90′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
2 M. Simakan D
16 L. Klostermann D
4 W. Orbán D
22 D. Raum D
39 B. Henrichs M
24 X. Schlager M
7 Dani Olmo M
20 X. Simons M
17 L. Openda F
30 B. Šeško F
Bench (12)
9 Y. Poulsen
8 A. Haidara
6 E. Elmas
44 K. Kampl
23 C. Lukeba
38 N. Jatta
3 C. Lenz
13 N. Seiwald
21 J. Blaswich
5 E. Bitshiabu
25 L. Zingerle
14 C. Baumgartner

Coach: M. Rose

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
18 A. Tchouaméni D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
8 T. Kroos M
12 E. Camavinga M
21 Brahim Díaz M
11 Rodrygo F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
17 Lucas Vázquez
14 Joselu
41 Jacobo Ramón
34 Álvaro Carrillo
32 N. Paz
19 Dani Ceballos
10 L. Modrić
20 Fran García
24 A. Güler
28 Mario Martín
30 Fran González
25 Kepa

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Peljto · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.