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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

RB Leipzig

S S S U T

2–3

Full-time

Leverkusen

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 71%

59%

82%

Points per game

1,9

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

71%

82%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,2

2,8

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+2,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,63 xG 2,04

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Leverkusen 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	17	14	3	0	+35	+19.6	45
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+37	+35.1	41
3	Stuttgart	18	11	1	6	+15	+20.7	34
4	RB Leipzig	17	10	3	4	+20	+16.5	33
5	Dortmund	18	9	6	3	+12	+5.5	33
6	Ein Frankfurt	18	7	7	4	+7	-4.2	28
7	Freiburg	18	8	4	6	-4	+2.8	28
8	Hoffenheim	18	7	3	8	-2	-4.0	24
9	Heidenheim	18	6	4	8	-7	-16.3	22
10	Wolfsburg	18	6	3	9	-7	-4.9	21
11	M'gladbach	17	5	5	7	-2	-3.5	20
12	Bochum	18	4	8	6	-14	-8.1	20
13	Augsburg	17	4	6	7	-8	-4.9	18
14	Werder Bremen	17	4	5	8	-7	-7.2	17
15	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.9	14
16	Mainz	17	1	8	8	-15	-1.6	11
17	FC Koln	18	2	5	11	-22	-20.1	11
18	Darmstadt	18	2	5	11	-24	-19.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
2	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+28	+19.9	22
3	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+17	+12.9	20
5	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+5	+8.3	18
6	Heidenheim	9	5	2	2	+3	-4.4	17
7	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.9	15
9	Bochum	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.2	14
10	M'gladbach	9	4	2	3	+3	+1.3	14
11	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
12	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
13	Augsburg	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.4	6
17	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-9	-4.7	6
18	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-7	+1.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	6	2	0	+12	+2.8	20
2	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
3	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+10	+1.1	16
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.0	13
7	Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	-4	+2.4	12
8	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
9	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-10	-2.7	8
10	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
11	Mainz	9	0	6	3	-8	-3.3	6
12	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
13	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-9	-3.9	5
14	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-10	-11.9	5
15	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
16	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
17	Union Berlin	8	1	1	6	-10	-4.7	4
18	Werder Bremen	8	0	3	5	-8	-6.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.