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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Arsenal
S T S S S
1–0
Full-time
Porto
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
4,3
2,7
Scored
3,8
2,3
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+3,3
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 64%
57%
71%
Points per game
1,9
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
57%
57%
Both score Ø 50%
43%
57%
Average goals
3,0
3,4
Scored
2,3
2,3
Conceded
0,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,95 xG 0,55
58% Possession 42%
13 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 1
3 Offside 3
18 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Feb -24 Porto – Arsenal 1–0

Match report

Arsenal Porto
William Saliba 🟨
39′
1–0 L. Trossard ⚽
M. Ødegaard
41′
Half-time 1–0
73′
🟨 Pepe
Gabriel Jesus 🔁
↦ Jorginho
83′
86′
🔁 J. Sánchez
↦ João Mário
88′
🔁 M. Taremi
↦ Evanilson
97′
🔁 M. Grujić
↦ A. Varela
101′
🔁 Gonçalo Borges
↦ Francisco Conceição
101′
🔁 S. Eustáquio
↦ Nico González
O. Zinchenko 🔁
↦ J. Kiwior
105′
E. Nketiah 🔁
↦ L. Trossard
105′
Kai Havertz 🟨
116′
2–0 M. Ødegaard ⚽
121′
122′
⚽ Pepê Aquino 2–1
3–1 K. Havertz ⚽
123′
124′
❌ Wendell
penalty missed
4–1 B. Saka ⚽
125′
126′
⚽ M. Grujić 4–2
5–2 D. Rice ⚽
127′
128′
❌ Galeno
penalty missed
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
15 J. Kiwior D
8 M. Ødegaard M
20 Jorginho M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
29 K. Havertz F
19 L. Trossard F
Bench (12)
9 Gabriel Jesus
35 O. Zinchenko
14 E. Nketiah
25 Mohamed Elneny
5 T. Partey
17 Cédric Soares
24 R. Nelson
31 K. Hein
1 A. Ramsdale
21 Fábio Vieira
18 T. Tomiyasu
10 E. Smith Rowe

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Porto

4-2-3-1
99 Diogo Costa G
23 João Mário D
3 Pepe D
31 Otávio D
18 Wendell D
22 A. Varela M
16 Nico González M
10 Francisco Conceição M
11 Pepê Aquino M
13 Galeno M
30 Evanilson F
Bench (12)
15 J. Sánchez
9 M. Taremi
8 M. Grujić
70 Gonçalo Borges
6 S. Eustáquio
2 Fábio Cardoso
97 Zé Pedro
29 Toni Martínez
19 D. Namaso
17 Iván Jaime
28 Romário Baró
14 Cláudio Ramos

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.