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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Barcelona
S U S U S
3–1
Full-time
Napoli
U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
57%
43%
Points per game
1,9
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 64%
57%
71%
Average goals
2,9
3,0
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,73 xG 1,31
49% Possession 51%
24 Shots 14
10 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 2
1 Offside 4
7 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Feb -24 Napoli – Barcelona 1–1

Match report

Barcelona Napoli
1–0 Fermín ⚽
Raphinha
15′
2–0 João Cancelo ⚽
17′
Andreas Christensen 🟨
19′
30′
⚽ Amir Rrahmani 2–1
M. Politano
Lamine Yamal 🟨
44′
Half-time 2–1
47′
🟨 Juan Jesus
Sergi Roberto 🔁
↦ Fermín
60′
Oriol Romeu 🔁
↦ A. Christensen
61′
63′
🟨 Hamed Junior Traorè
64′
🔁 J. Lindstrøm
↦ M. Politano
64′
🔁 M. Olivera
↦ Mário Rui
67′
🟨 Mathías Olivera
78′
🔁 G. Raspadori
↦ H. Traorè
João Félix 🔁
↦ Raphinha
81′
3–1 R. Lewandowski ⚽
Sergi Roberto
83′
92′
🔁 C. Ngonge
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
33 Pau Cubarsí D
2 João Cancelo D
32 Fermín M
15 A. Christensen M
22 İ. Gündoğan M
27 Lamine Yamal F
9 R. Lewandowski F
11 Raphinha F
Bench (11)
20 Sergi Roberto
18 Oriol Romeu
14 João Félix
39 Héctor Fort
13 Iñaki Peña
5 Iñigo Martínez
35 Unai Hernández
19 Vitor Roque
38 Marc Guiu
26 Ander Astralaga
30 Marc Casadó

Coach: Xavi

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 Amir Rrahmani D
5 Juan Jesus D
6 Mário Rui D
99 F. Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
8 H. Traorè M
21 M. Politano F
9 V. Osimhen F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (11)
29 J. Lindstrøm
17 M. Olivera
81 G. Raspadori
26 C. Ngonge
14 N. Contini-Baranovskyi
30 P. Mazzocchi
18 G. Simeone
24 J. Cajuste
95 P. Gollini
3 Natan
55 L. Østigård

Coach: F. Calzona

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.