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Champions League
Referee: M Guida
Ath Madrid
S T S T S
2–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
63%
50%
Points per game
2,1
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
63%
13%
Both score Ø 51%
63%
38%
Average goals
3,4
1,9
Scored
2,4
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,18 xG 0,87
33% Possession 67%
14 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
8 Corners 8
10 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Madrid Dortmund
1–0 R. De Paul ⚽
4′
24′
🟨 Emre Can
Samuel Lino 🟨
27′
Marcos Llorente 🟨
28′
2–0 Samuel Lino ⚽
A. Griezmann
32′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ F. Nmecha
53′
🟨 Ian Maatsen
60′
🔁 S. Haller
↦ N. Füllkrug
Pablo Barrios 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
64′
73′
🔁 J. Bynoe-Gittens
↦ K. Adeyemi
José María Giménez 🟨
75′
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
80′
81′
⚽ S. Haller 2–1
84′
🔁 M. Reus
↦ M. Sabitzer
84′
🔁 S. Özcan
↦ E. Can
Saúl 🔁
↦ N. Molina
90′
S. Savić 🔁
↦ A. Witsel
91′
Rodrigo Riquelme 🔁
↦ Samuel Lino
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-5-2
13 J. Oblak G
20 A. Witsel D
2 J. Giménez D
3 César Azpilicueta D
16 N. Molina M
14 Marcos Llorente M
6 Koke M
5 R. De Paul M
12 Samuel Lino M
19 Álvaro Morata F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
24 Pablo Barrios
10 Á. Correa
15 S. Savić
8 Saúl
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
23 Reinildo
1 H. Moldovan
4 Gabriel Paulista
31 Antonio Gomis
18 A. Vermeeren
30 S. El Jebari

Coach: D. Simeone

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
22 I. Maatsen D
20 M. Sabitzer M
23 E. Can M
10 J. Sancho M
8 F. Nmecha M
27 K. Adeyemi M
14 N. Füllkrug F
Bench (11)
19 J. Brandt
9 S. Haller
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens
11 M. Reus
6 S. Özcan
25 N. Süle
33 A. Meyer
16 J. Duranville
18 Y. Moukoko
35 M. Lotka
17 M. Wolf

Coach: E. Terzić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Guida · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.