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Premier League
Referee: Lee Mason
Bournemouth
T T S U T
2–2
Full-time
Watford
T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Watford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
1,5
0,3
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,3
This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 31%
33%
29%
Points per game
1,2
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
62%
48%
Both score Ø 55%
52%
57%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,4
1,1
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%
15 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bournemouth 11. · Watford 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 21 17 1 3 +30 52
2 Tottenham 21 13 6 2 +29 45
3 Liverpool 22 13 6 3 +24 45
4 Arsenal 21 13 5 3 +26 44
5 Man City 21 13 3 5 +15 42
6 Man United 21 11 7 3 +12 40
7 Everton 21 9 6 6 +9 33
8 West Brom 21 8 5 8 +0 29
9 Stoke 21 7 6 8 -6 27
10 Burnley 21 8 2 11 -8 26
11 Bournemouth 21 7 4 10 -7 25
12 West Ham 21 7 4 10 -9 25
13 Southampton 21 6 6 9 -7 24
14 Watford 21 6 5 10 -13 23
15 Leicester 21 5 6 10 -10 21
16 Middlesbrough 21 4 8 9 -5 20
17 Swansea 22 5 3 14 -25 18
18 Crystal Palace 21 4 4 13 -10 16
19 Hull 21 4 4 13 -25 16
20 Sunderland 21 4 3 14 -20 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bournemouth Watford
24′
C. Kabasele 0–1
M. Britos
Half-time 1–1
1–1 J. King
A. Smith
48′
62′
🔁 D. Janmaat
↦ S. Okaka
64′
T. Deeney 1–2
T. Cleverley
70′
🟨 José Holebas
B. Afobe 🔁
↦ J. Stanislas
74′
J. Ibe 🔁
↦ J. King
74′
79′
🟨 Younès Kaboul
M. Pugh 🔁
↦ R. Fraser
81′
2–2 B. Afobe
A. Surman
82′
85′
🔁 C. Cathcart
↦ C. Kabasele
88′
🔁 O. Ighalo
↦ A. Doucouré
Steve Cook 🟨
90′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1
1 A. Boruc G
11 C. Daniels D
15 A. Smith D
3 S. Cook D
26 T. Mings D
6 A. Surman M
32 J. Wilshere M
19 J. Stanislas M
24 R. Fraser M
13 C. Wilson F
17 J. King M
Bench (7)
9 B. Afobe
33 J. Ibe
7 M. Pugh
4 D. Gosling
8 H. Arter
14 B. Smith
23 A. Federici

Coach: E. Howe

Watford

3-4-1-2
1 Gomes G
4 Y. Kaboul D
5 S. Prödl D
25 J. Holebas M
3 M. Britos D
27 C. Kabasele M
29 E. Capoue M
8 T. Cleverley F
16 A. Doucouré M
33 S. Okaka F
9 T. Deeney F
Bench (7)
22 D. Janmaat
15 C. Cathcart
24 O. Ighalo
18 C. Zúñiga
19 J. Sinclair
30 C. Pantilimon
32 B. Mason

Coach: W. Mazzarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Lee Mason · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.