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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Watford

S S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 45%

33%

56%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

45%

62%

Both score Ø 62%

52%

71%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

6 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 13. · Liverpool 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	34	26	3	5	+43	81
2	Tottenham	34	23	8	3	+49	77
3	Liverpool	34	19	9	6	+28	66
4	Man City	34	19	9	6	+28	66
5	Man United	34	17	14	3	+26	65
6	Arsenal	33	18	6	9	+22	60
7	Everton	35	16	10	9	+20	58
8	West Brom	34	12	8	14	-4	44
9	Southampton	33	11	8	14	-5	41
10	Bournemouth	35	11	8	16	-13	41
11	Leicester	34	11	7	16	-12	40
12	Stoke	35	10	10	15	-13	40
13	Watford	33	11	7	15	-17	40
14	Burnley	35	11	6	18	-14	39
15	West Ham	35	10	9	16	-15	39
16	Crystal Palace	35	11	5	19	-10	38
17	Hull	35	9	7	19	-31	34
18	Swansea	35	9	5	21	-29	32
19	Middlesbrough	35	5	13	17	-19	28
20	Sunderland	34	5	6	23	-34	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Chelsea	16	14	0	2	+30	42
3	Everton	18	12	4	2	+25	40
4	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+24	37
5	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+17	36
6	Burnley	17	10	2	5	+7	32
7	Man City	16	8	7	1	+12	31
8	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
9	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
10	West Brom	18	9	2	7	+6	29
11	Watford	17	8	4	5	+2	28
12	Hull	17	8	4	5	+1	28
13	Bournemouth	17	8	3	6	+5	27
14	Stoke	18	7	6	5	+3	27
15	Southampton	16	6	5	5	-1	23
16	West Ham	17	6	4	7	-9	22
17	Swansea	17	6	3	8	-9	21
18	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-5	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	2	11	-5	17
20	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	18	12	3	3	+13	39
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Man United	16	10	4	2	+14	34
4	Liverpool	17	8	5	4	+4	29
5	Tottenham	16	7	6	3	+12	27
6	Arsenal	17	7	3	7	+5	24
7	Crystal Palace	17	6	3	8	-5	21
8	Southampton	17	5	3	9	-4	18
9	Everton	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
13	Stoke	17	3	4	10	-16	13
14	Watford	16	3	3	10	-19	12
15	Swansea	18	3	2	13	-20	11
16	Middlesbrough	17	1	7	9	-14	10
17	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-20	10
18	Sunderland	16	2	1	13	-18	7
19	Burnley	18	1	4	13	-21	7
20	Hull	18	1	3	14	-32	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.