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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Chelsea

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

62%

15%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

54%

31%

Both score Ø 35%

46%

23%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

21 Shots 2

10 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 9

15 Corners 1

10 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Swansea 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	1	0	+34	37
2	Man United	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+13	26
4	Arsenal	13	8	1	4	+7	25
5	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+10	24
6	Liverpool	13	6	5	2	+7	23
7	Burnley	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Watford	14	6	3	5	-1	21
9	Leicester	14	4	5	5	-1	17
10	Brighton	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Southampton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Newcastle	14	4	3	7	-6	15
13	Huddersfield	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Bournemouth	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Stoke	13	3	4	6	-10	13
16	West Brom	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Everton	13	3	3	7	-15	12
18	West Ham	13	2	4	7	-14	10
19	Swansea	13	2	3	8	-8	9
20	Crystal Palace	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+11	18
3	Man City	6	5	1	0	+20	16
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
5	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Huddersfield	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
10	Leicester	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
12	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Everton	6	3	0	3	-4	9
14	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	+1	7
18	West Brom	7	1	4	2	-4	7
19	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	+6	12
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+0	11
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	West Ham	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Crystal Palace	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.