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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Man City

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 62%

92%

31%

Points per game

2,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

69%

38%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

3,8

2,2

Scored

3,2

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

74% Possession 26%

26 Shots 7

12 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 10

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Southampton 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	1	0	+34	37
2	Man United	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Chelsea	14	9	2	3	+14	29
4	Arsenal	14	9	1	4	+12	28
5	Burnley	14	7	4	3	+3	25
6	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+10	24
7	Liverpool	13	6	5	2	+7	23
8	Watford	14	6	3	5	-1	21
9	Leicester	14	4	5	5	-1	17
10	Brighton	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Southampton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Newcastle	14	4	3	7	-6	15
13	Huddersfield	14	4	3	7	-15	15
14	Bournemouth	14	4	2	8	-4	14
15	Stoke	13	3	4	6	-10	13
16	West Brom	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Everton	13	3	3	7	-15	12
18	West Ham	13	2	4	7	-14	10
19	Swansea	14	2	3	9	-9	9
20	Crystal Palace	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Man City	6	5	1	0	+20	16
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Huddersfield	7	3	2	2	-2	11
10	Leicester	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
12	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Everton	6	3	0	3	-4	9
14	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	+0	7
18	West Brom	7	1	4	2	-4	7
19	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Burnley	7	4	2	1	+1	14
4	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	+6	12
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-3	5
14	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Huddersfield	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	West Ham	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Crystal Palace	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.