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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Watford

T S T T S

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,5

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

2,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 50%

41%

59%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 64%

59%

69%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%

11 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	26	7	1	+57	85
2	Man City	33	27	2	4	+64	83
3	Tottenham	33	22	1	10	+30	67
4	Chelsea	34	20	6	8	+21	66
5	Man United	33	19	7	7	+19	64
6	Arsenal	32	19	6	7	+25	63
7	Leicester	34	14	5	15	+1	47
8	Wolves	33	13	8	12	-1	47
9	Everton	34	13	7	14	+2	46
10	Watford	32	13	7	12	+0	46
11	West Ham	34	12	6	16	-10	42
12	Bournemouth	34	12	5	17	-12	41
13	Crystal Palace	34	11	6	17	-6	39
14	Burnley	34	11	6	17	-18	39
15	Newcastle	34	10	8	16	-11	38
16	Southampton	33	9	9	15	-15	36
17	Brighton	32	9	6	17	-19	33
18	Cardiff	33	8	4	21	-35	28
19	Fulham	34	5	5	24	-44	20
20	Huddersfield	34	3	5	26	-48	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	0	1	+43	48
2	Liverpool	17	15	2	0	+38	47
3	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+27	44
4	Chelsea	17	11	5	1	+24	38
5	Man United	16	10	5	1	+12	35
6	Tottenham	16	11	1	4	+18	34
7	Everton	17	8	4	5	+3	28
8	Wolves	16	8	3	5	+4	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+2	27
10	Bournemouth	17	7	5	5	+5	26
11	Watford	15	8	2	5	+3	26
12	Leicester	17	7	2	8	+1	23
13	Burnley	17	7	2	8	-5	23
14	Newcastle	17	7	1	9	-2	22
15	Brighton	16	6	4	6	-4	22
16	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
18	Fulham	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	16
20	Huddersfield	17	2	2	13	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+19	38
2	Man City	16	11	2	3	+21	35
3	Tottenham	17	11	0	6	+12	33
4	Man United	17	9	2	6	+7	29
5	Chelsea	17	9	1	7	-3	28
6	Leicester	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Watford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-5	20
10	Arsenal	15	5	4	6	-2	19
11	Everton	17	5	3	9	-1	18
12	Newcastle	17	3	7	7	-9	16
13	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
15	West Ham	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Bournemouth	17	5	0	12	-17	15
17	Brighton	16	3	2	11	-15	11
18	Cardiff	16	2	2	12	-21	8
19	Huddersfield	17	1	3	13	-28	6
20	Fulham	17	0	2	15	-33	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.