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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Everton

S U T S S

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 50%

38%

61%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

23 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 10. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	33	25	7	1	+55	82
2	Man City	32	26	2	4	+62	80
3	Tottenham	32	21	1	10	+26	64
4	Arsenal	31	19	6	6	+26	63
5	Chelsea	32	19	6	7	+21	63
6	Man United	32	18	7	7	+18	61
7	Leicester	33	14	5	14	+2	47
8	Wolves	32	13	8	11	+1	47
9	Watford	32	13	7	12	+0	46
10	Everton	32	12	7	13	+3	43
11	West Ham	32	12	6	14	-7	42
12	Crystal Palace	33	11	6	16	-4	39
13	Bournemouth	33	11	5	17	-17	38
14	Burnley	33	10	6	17	-20	36
15	Newcastle	33	9	8	16	-12	35
16	Brighton	31	9	6	16	-14	33
17	Southampton	32	8	9	15	-17	33
18	Cardiff	32	8	4	20	-33	28
19	Fulham	33	4	5	24	-46	17
20	Huddersfield	33	3	5	25	-44	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	0	1	+43	48
2	Liverpool	16	14	2	0	+36	44
3	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+27	44
4	Chelsea	16	10	5	1	+22	35
5	Man United	15	9	5	1	+11	32
6	Tottenham	15	10	1	4	+14	31
7	Wolves	16	8	3	5	+4	27
8	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+2	27
9	Bournemouth	17	7	5	5	+5	26
10	Watford	15	8	2	5	+3	26
11	Everton	16	7	4	5	+2	25
12	Leicester	16	7	2	7	+2	23
13	Brighton	15	6	4	5	+1	22
14	Newcastle	17	7	1	9	-2	22
15	Burnley	16	6	2	8	-7	20
16	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
17	Southampton	16	4	6	6	-5	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	16
19	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-13	15
20	Huddersfield	17	2	2	13	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+19	38
2	Tottenham	17	11	0	6	+12	33
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+19	32
4	Man United	17	9	2	6	+7	29
5	Chelsea	16	9	1	6	-1	28
6	Leicester	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	+0	23
8	Watford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Wolves	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Everton	16	5	3	8	+1	18
12	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
13	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-9	15
14	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
15	Newcastle	16	2	7	7	-10	13
16	Bournemouth	16	4	0	12	-22	12
17	Brighton	16	3	2	11	-15	11
18	Cardiff	15	2	2	11	-19	8
19	Huddersfield	16	1	3	12	-24	6
20	Fulham	17	0	2	15	-33	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.