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Championship

Referee: Nigel Miller

Derby

T U U T S

1–0

Full-time

Blackburn

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Blackburn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

This season — Championship · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 33%

42%

23%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

39%

27%

Both score Ø 43%

45%

40%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Blackburn 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	31	19	6	6	+31	63
2	Burnley	33	17	11	5	+25	62
3	Middlesbrough	31	18	7	6	+25	61
4	Brighton	32	16	11	5	+11	59
5	Sheffield Weds	32	14	11	7	+15	53
6	Derby	31	13	12	6	+13	51
7	Birmingham	32	14	9	9	+9	51
8	Cardiff	33	12	13	8	+6	49
9	Preston	33	12	12	9	+2	48
10	Ipswich	32	13	9	10	+0	48
11	Brentford	33	12	7	14	-5	43
12	Nott'm Forest	32	10	12	10	+3	42
13	QPR	33	9	14	10	-1	41
14	Reading	32	10	10	12	+1	40
15	Wolves	33	10	10	13	-6	40
16	Huddersfield	33	10	9	14	-1	39
17	Leeds	32	8	14	10	-5	38
18	Fulham	33	8	12	13	-3	36
19	Blackburn	30	7	13	10	+1	34
20	Bristol City	33	8	10	15	-23	34
21	Milton Keynes Dons	33	8	8	17	-19	32
22	Rotherham	33	7	5	21	-22	26
23	Bolton	33	4	13	16	-23	25
24	Charlton	33	5	10	18	-34	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	12	3	2	+21	39
2	Hull	14	11	3	0	+26	36
3	Middlesbrough	16	11	3	2	+19	36
4	Sheffield Weds	16	10	5	1	+19	35
5	Brighton	16	11	2	3	+8	35
6	Cardiff	16	8	7	1	+11	31
7	Reading	17	7	7	3	+8	28
8	Derby	16	7	6	3	+11	27
9	Preston	17	7	6	4	+2	27
10	Birmingham	16	8	2	6	+2	26
11	Nott'm Forest	16	6	6	4	+6	24
12	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+3	24
13	Brentford	17	7	3	7	-1	24
14	QPR	16	5	8	3	+4	23
15	Huddersfield	16	6	4	6	+6	22
16	Bolton	16	4	9	3	+1	21
17	Milton Keynes Dons	17	6	3	8	-8	21
18	Fulham	16	5	5	6	+3	20
19	Blackburn	15	4	7	4	+4	19
20	Leeds	17	4	7	6	-4	19
21	Wolves	16	4	6	6	-3	18
22	Rotherham	16	5	3	8	-5	18
23	Bristol City	17	4	6	7	-10	18
24	Charlton	16	3	7	6	-8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	17	8	3	6	+5	27
2	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+7	25
3	Middlesbrough	15	7	4	4	+6	25
4	Brighton	16	5	9	2	+3	24
5	Derby	15	6	6	3	+2	24
6	Ipswich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
7	Burnley	16	5	8	3	+4	23
8	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-3	22
9	Preston	16	5	6	5	+0	21
10	Leeds	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Brentford	16	5	4	7	-4	19
12	Nott'm Forest	16	4	6	6	-3	18
13	Sheffield Weds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
14	Cardiff	17	4	6	7	-5	18
15	QPR	17	4	6	7	-5	18
16	Huddersfield	17	4	5	8	-7	17
17	Fulham	17	3	7	7	-6	16
18	Bristol City	16	4	4	8	-13	16
19	Blackburn	15	3	6	6	-3	15
20	Reading	15	3	3	9	-7	12
21	Milton Keynes Dons	16	2	5	9	-11	11
22	Charlton	17	2	3	12	-26	9
23	Rotherham	17	2	2	13	-17	8
24	Bolton	17	0	4	13	-24	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.