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Championship

Referee: Darren Deadman

Fulham

S T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 32%

21%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

64%

39%

Both score Ø 59%

75%

43%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 19. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	27	17	5	5	+29	56
2	Middlesbrough	27	17	4	6	+23	55
3	Burnley	29	14	10	5	+21	52
4	Brighton	28	14	10	4	+9	52
5	Ipswich	29	13	9	7	+3	48
6	Derby	28	12	11	5	+12	47
7	Birmingham	29	13	8	8	+9	47
8	Sheffield Weds	28	12	10	6	+11	46
9	Cardiff	29	11	11	7	+5	44
10	Brentford	30	11	7	12	-2	40
11	Nott'm Forest	29	9	12	8	+5	39
12	Wolves	29	10	9	10	-1	39
13	QPR	29	8	12	9	+0	36
14	Preston	29	8	12	9	-2	36
15	Leeds	29	8	12	9	-4	36
16	Reading	29	9	8	12	+0	35
17	Huddersfield	29	8	8	13	-3	32
18	Blackburn	27	6	12	9	+0	30
19	Fulham	28	6	10	12	-5	28
20	Milton Keynes Dons	28	7	5	16	-18	26
21	Rotherham	29	7	4	18	-18	25
22	Bristol City	29	5	10	14	-23	25
23	Charlton	29	5	9	15	-29	24
24	Bolton	29	3	12	14	-22	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	13	11	2	0	+26	35
2	Middlesbrough	14	10	2	2	+17	32
3	Brighton	15	10	2	3	+7	32
4	Sheffield Weds	14	9	4	1	+15	31
5	Burnley	14	9	3	2	+17	30
6	Derby	15	7	6	2	+12	27
7	Cardiff	14	7	6	1	+8	27
8	Nott'm Forest	15	6	6	3	+8	24
9	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	+4	24
10	Reading	14	6	5	3	+7	23
11	Birmingham	14	7	2	5	+2	23
12	Brentford	15	6	3	6	-2	21
13	QPR	14	4	8	2	+5	20
14	Huddersfield	15	5	4	6	+5	19
15	Milton Keynes Dons	14	6	1	7	-6	19
16	Preston	14	4	6	4	-1	18
17	Wolves	15	4	6	5	-2	18
18	Bolton	14	3	8	3	+0	17
19	Leeds	14	4	5	5	-3	17
20	Rotherham	15	5	2	8	-5	17
21	Blackburn	13	3	7	3	+3	16
22	Fulham	14	4	4	6	+0	16
23	Charlton	14	3	6	5	-7	15
24	Bristol City	15	3	6	6	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	15	6	6	3	+7	24
2	Ipswich	14	7	3	4	-1	24
3	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Burnley	15	5	7	3	+4	22
5	Hull	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
7	Brighton	13	4	8	1	+2	20
8	Derby	13	5	5	3	+0	20
9	Brentford	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Leeds	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Preston	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-3	17
13	QPR	15	4	4	7	-5	16
14	Nott'm Forest	14	3	6	5	-3	15
15	Sheffield Weds	14	3	6	5	-4	15
16	Blackburn	14	3	5	6	-3	14
17	Huddersfield	14	3	4	7	-8	13
18	Fulham	14	2	6	6	-5	12
19	Reading	15	3	3	9	-7	12
20	Bristol City	14	2	4	8	-16	10
21	Charlton	15	2	3	10	-22	9
22	Rotherham	14	2	2	10	-13	8
23	Milton Keynes Dons	14	1	4	9	-12	7
24	Bolton	15	0	4	11	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.