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Championship

Referee: Andy Woolmer

Reading

S S T U U

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

42%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

42%

25%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

68% Possession 32%

14 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 9. · Aston Villa 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	13	9	1	3	+16	28
2	Norwich	13	8	3	2	+8	27
3	Brighton	13	7	4	2	+8	25
4	Huddersfield	11	8	1	2	+6	25
5	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	+5	23
6	Bristol City	13	6	2	5	+5	20
7	Brentford	13	5	4	4	+7	19
8	QPR	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Reading	12	5	4	3	-3	19
10	Fulham	13	4	6	3	-1	18
11	Ipswich	13	4	5	4	+1	17
12	Sheffield Weds	11	5	2	4	-1	17
13	Leeds	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Barnsley	13	5	1	7	+1	16
15	Wolves	13	4	4	5	+0	16
16	Nott'm Forest	13	4	3	6	-2	15
17	Burton Albion	13	3	5	5	-2	14
18	Preston	12	4	2	6	-2	14
19	Derby	13	3	5	5	-3	14
20	Blackburn	13	3	3	7	-7	12
21	Wigan	13	2	5	6	-2	11
22	Aston Villa	12	1	8	3	-2	11
23	Cardiff	12	3	2	7	-10	11
24	Rotherham	13	1	3	9	-18	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Norwich	6	5	1	0	+7	16
3	Huddersfield	5	5	0	0	+5	15
4	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Nott'm Forest	6	4	1	1	+5	13
7	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
8	Newcastle	6	4	0	2	+5	12
9	Ipswich	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Reading	6	3	3	0	+3	12
11	Sheffield Weds	6	4	0	2	+1	12
12	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+1	11
13	Burton Albion	6	3	1	2	+3	10
14	Barnsley	7	3	1	3	+2	10
15	Preston	6	3	0	3	+3	9
16	Wigan	6	2	3	1	+3	9
17	QPR	7	2	3	2	-4	9
18	Aston Villa	6	1	5	0	+3	8
19	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-1	8
20	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	-2	8
21	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
22	Derby	7	1	3	3	-3	6
23	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-5	6
24	Cardiff	6	2	0	4	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	7	5	1	1	+11	16
2	Fulham	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Norwich	7	3	2	2	+1	11
4	QPR	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Huddersfield	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Birmingham	6	2	3	1	+0	9
7	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
8	Wolves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
9	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Bristol City	7	2	1	4	+1	7
11	Reading	6	2	1	3	-6	7
12	Barnsley	6	2	0	4	-1	6
13	Leeds	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Ipswich	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Brentford	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Preston	6	1	2	3	-5	5
19	Burton Albion	7	0	4	3	-5	4
20	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	4
21	Aston Villa	6	0	3	3	-5	3
22	Wigan	7	0	2	5	-5	2
23	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-7	2
24	Rotherham	7	0	0	7	-17	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.