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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Derby

U T S U S

0–0

Full-time

Brentford

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

25%

42%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

42%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,4

2,6

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Brentford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	8	2	2	+8	26
2	Newcastle	12	8	1	3	+14	25
3	Huddersfield	11	8	1	2	+6	25
4	Brighton	12	6	4	2	+7	22
5	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+6	20
6	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	+3	20
7	Reading	12	5	4	3	-3	19
8	Brentford	12	5	3	4	+7	18
9	Fulham	12	4	5	3	-1	17
10	Sheffield Weds	11	5	2	4	-1	17
11	Barnsley	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+1	16
13	Leeds	12	5	1	6	-2	16
14	QPR	12	4	4	4	-3	16
15	Nott'm Forest	12	4	3	5	-1	15
16	Burton Albion	12	3	5	4	+0	14
17	Ipswich	12	3	5	4	-1	14
18	Preston	12	4	2	6	-2	14
19	Derby	12	3	4	5	-3	13
20	Aston Villa	12	1	8	3	-2	11
21	Cardiff	12	3	2	7	-10	11
22	Wigan	12	2	4	6	-2	10
23	Blackburn	12	2	3	7	-8	9
24	Rotherham	12	1	3	8	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Huddersfield	5	5	0	0	+5	15
3	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+11	14
4	Brighton	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Nott'm Forest	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
7	Newcastle	6	4	0	2	+5	12
8	Reading	6	3	3	0	+3	12
9	Sheffield Weds	6	4	0	2	+1	12
10	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+3	11
11	Barnsley	6	3	1	2	+4	10
12	Burton Albion	6	3	1	2	+3	10
13	Leeds	6	3	1	2	+1	10
14	Preston	6	3	0	3	+3	9
15	Wigan	6	2	3	1	+3	9
16	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+2	9
17	Aston Villa	6	1	5	0	+3	8
18	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-1	8
19	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
20	QPR	6	1	3	2	-5	6
21	Cardiff	6	2	0	4	-5	6
22	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-3	5
23	Derby	6	1	2	3	-3	5
24	Fulham	6	1	2	3	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	6	4	1	1	+9	13
2	Fulham	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	QPR	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Norwich	6	3	1	2	+1	10
5	Huddersfield	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Birmingham	6	2	3	1	+0	9
7	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
8	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+2	8
9	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Bristol City	6	2	1	3	+2	7
11	Reading	6	2	1	3	-6	7
12	Barnsley	6	2	0	4	-1	6
13	Leeds	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Ipswich	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Preston	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Burton Albion	6	0	4	2	-3	4
19	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-4	4
20	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	4
21	Aston Villa	6	0	3	3	-5	3
22	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-6	2
23	Wigan	6	0	1	5	-5	1
24	Rotherham	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.