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Championship
Referee: Andy Madley
Middlesbrough
S U T S T
3–1
Full-time
Hull
U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Hull
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
1,5
1,2
Scored
0,8
0,5
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,2
This season — Championship · 30/31 matches
Win Ø 33%
47%
19%
Points per game
1,6
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
47%
55%
Both score Ø 51%
40%
61%
Average goals
2,3
2,9
Scored
1,3
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

33% Possession 67%
12 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Hull 21.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolves 32 22 6 4 +33 72
2 Cardiff 32 18 7 7 +21 61
3 Derby 31 16 9 6 +22 57
4 Fulham 30 15 9 6 +19 54
5 Bristol City 32 14 11 7 +9 53
6 Aston Villa 29 15 7 7 +17 52
7 Preston 32 12 14 6 +8 50
8 Sheffield United 31 15 4 12 +7 49
9 Middlesbrough 30 14 5 11 +11 47
10 Brentford 32 12 11 9 +5 47
11 Leeds 32 13 6 13 +3 45
12 Ipswich 32 13 6 13 +2 45
13 Norwich 32 12 9 11 -3 45
14 Millwall 32 10 12 10 +3 42
15 QPR 32 10 9 13 -9 39
16 Sheffield Weds 32 8 13 11 -4 37
17 Nott'm Forest 32 11 3 18 -15 36
18 Reading 31 8 8 15 -7 32
19 Birmingham 32 8 6 18 -22 30
20 Bolton 32 7 9 16 -23 30
21 Hull 31 6 11 14 -5 29
22 Barnsley 31 6 10 15 -15 28
23 Sunderland 32 5 11 16 -23 26
24 Burton Albion 32 6 8 18 -34 26

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Hull
1–0 R. Gestede
16′
Rudy Gestede 🟨
35′
41′
Evandro 1–1
Jon Toral
2–1 P. Bamford
45′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 R. Gestede
Adama Traoré
58′
A. Clayton 🔁
↦ M. Bešić
66′
66′
🔁 K. Grosicki
↦ Jon Toral
J. Howson 🔁
↦ P. Bamford
71′
76′
🔁 A. Diomande
↦ F. Tomori
M. Cranie 🔁
↦ S. Downing
84′
88′
🟨 Michael Dawson
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-3-3
25 D. Randolph G
5 R. Shotton D
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
19 S. Downing F
7 G. Leadbitter M
27 M. Bešić M
37 Adama Traoré F
20 D. Fry D
39 R. Gestede F
11 P. Bamford F
Bench (7)
8 A. Clayton
16 J. Howson
14 M. Cranie
1 D. Konstantopoulos
9 B. Assombalonga
23 J. Harrison
30 L. Baker

Coach: T. Pulis

Hull

3-5-2
1 A. McGregor G
21 M. Dawson D
50 A. MacDonald D
5 M. Hector D
34 O. Aina D
29 F. Tomori D
15 Evandro M
4 J. Irvine M
11 Jon Toral M
25 F. Campbell F
19 W. Keane F
Bench (7)
7 K. Grosicki
14 A. Diomande
8 D. Meyler
9 N. Dicko
12 D. Marshall
24 M. Clark
35 K. Stewart

Coach: N. Adkins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Andy Madley · 129 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.