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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Brentford

S T T U S

5–0

Full-time

Birmingham

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

47%

25%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

34%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,4

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

62% Possession 38%

28 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 10. · Birmingham 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	32	22	6	4	+33	72
2	Cardiff	32	18	7	7	+21	61
3	Derby	31	16	9	6	+22	57
4	Fulham	30	15	9	6	+19	54
5	Bristol City	32	14	11	7	+9	53
6	Aston Villa	29	15	7	7	+17	52
7	Preston	32	12	14	6	+8	50
8	Sheffield United	31	15	4	12	+7	49
9	Middlesbrough	30	14	5	11	+11	47
10	Brentford	32	12	11	9	+5	47
11	Leeds	32	13	6	13	+3	45
12	Ipswich	32	13	6	13	+2	45
13	Norwich	32	12	9	11	-3	45
14	Millwall	32	10	12	10	+3	42
15	QPR	32	10	9	13	-9	39
16	Sheffield Weds	32	8	13	11	-4	37
17	Nott'm Forest	32	11	3	18	-15	36
18	Reading	31	8	8	15	-7	32
19	Birmingham	32	8	6	18	-22	30
20	Bolton	32	7	9	16	-23	30
21	Hull	31	6	11	14	-5	29
22	Barnsley	31	6	10	15	-15	28
23	Sunderland	32	5	11	16	-23	26
24	Burton Albion	32	6	8	18	-34	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Cardiff	16	11	3	2	+19	36
3	Aston Villa	14	9	4	1	+16	31
4	Derby	16	9	4	3	+16	31
5	Fulham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
6	Sheffield United	16	9	2	5	+10	29
7	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+8	28
8	QPR	16	8	4	4	+3	28
9	Ipswich	16	8	3	5	+9	27
10	Millwall	16	7	6	3	+8	27
11	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	+6	27
12	Brentford	16	6	8	2	+8	26
13	Preston	16	6	7	3	+4	25
14	Leeds	16	6	5	5	+4	23
15	Bolton	16	6	4	6	-2	22
16	Sheffield Weds	16	5	6	5	+0	21
17	Norwich	16	5	6	5	+0	21
18	Nott'm Forest	16	7	0	9	-6	21
19	Birmingham	16	6	2	8	-7	20
20	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
21	Barnsley	16	3	6	7	-7	15
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	16	2	5	9	-11	11
24	Burton Albion	16	2	3	11	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Derby	15	7	5	3	+6	26
3	Fulham	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	16	6	7	3	+4	25
5	Cardiff	16	7	4	5	+2	25
6	Bristol City	16	6	7	3	+1	25
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
8	Leeds	16	7	1	8	-1	22
9	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	+1	21
10	Brentford	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Middlesbrough	15	6	2	7	+5	20
12	Sheffield United	15	6	2	7	-3	20
13	Reading	16	5	4	7	-1	19
14	Ipswich	16	5	3	8	-7	18
15	Burton Albion	16	4	5	7	-14	17
16	Sheffield Weds	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Millwall	16	3	6	7	-5	15
18	Nott'm Forest	16	4	3	9	-9	15
19	Sunderland	16	3	6	7	-12	15
20	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
21	QPR	16	2	5	9	-12	11
22	Hull	16	2	5	9	-12	11
23	Birmingham	16	2	4	10	-15	10
24	Bolton	16	1	5	10	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.