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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Bristol City

U S U T T

3–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

51%

29%

Both score Ø 43%

51%

34%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 8. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	41	27	8	6	+38	89
2	Cardiff	40	24	8	8	+28	80
3	Fulham	38	21	11	6	+30	74
4	Derby	38	18	13	7	+23	67
5	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	+23	66
6	Middlesbrough	39	19	8	12	+20	65
7	Millwall	41	17	14	10	+13	65
8	Bristol City	41	16	14	11	+9	62
9	Sheffield United	41	18	8	15	+7	62
10	Brentford	41	16	13	12	+10	61
11	Preston	41	15	15	11	+6	60
12	Norwich	41	14	13	14	-6	55
13	Leeds	41	15	9	17	-4	54
14	Ipswich	41	15	8	18	-3	53
15	QPR	41	13	11	17	-12	50
16	Sheffield Weds	41	11	14	16	-7	47
17	Nott'm Forest	40	13	7	20	-15	46
18	Hull	41	10	14	17	-2	44
19	Reading	41	10	12	19	-14	42
20	Birmingham	41	11	7	23	-27	40
21	Bolton	41	9	12	20	-28	39
22	Barnsley	40	8	13	19	-18	37
23	Sunderland	41	6	14	21	-29	32
24	Burton Albion	41	7	11	23	-42	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	21	15	3	3	+23	48
2	Wolves	20	14	4	2	+25	46
3	Millwall	21	11	7	3	+14	40
4	Fulham	19	11	6	2	+21	39
5	Middlesbrough	20	12	3	5	+14	39
6	Aston Villa	18	11	5	2	+20	38
7	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+13	37
8	Derby	19	10	5	4	+16	35
9	Bristol City	20	10	5	5	+12	35
10	QPR	20	10	5	5	+4	35
11	Brentford	21	8	10	3	+12	34
12	Leeds	21	8	6	7	+2	30
13	Hull	21	7	8	6	+12	29
14	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	+5	29
15	Norwich	21	7	8	6	+1	29
16	Preston	20	7	7	6	+2	28
17	Bolton	20	8	4	8	-3	28
18	Birmingham	21	8	3	10	-6	27
19	Nott'm Forest	19	8	2	9	-5	26
20	Sheffield Weds	21	6	7	8	-1	25
21	Reading	21	5	7	9	-6	22
22	Barnsley	21	4	8	9	-9	20
23	Sunderland	20	2	6	12	-18	12
24	Burton Albion	20	2	5	13	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	21	13	4	4	+13	43
2	Fulham	19	10	5	4	+9	35
3	Derby	19	8	8	3	+7	32
4	Cardiff	19	9	5	5	+5	32
5	Preston	21	8	8	5	+4	32
6	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	+3	28
7	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-2	27
8	Bristol City	21	6	9	6	-3	27
9	Middlesbrough	19	7	5	7	+6	26
10	Norwich	20	7	5	8	-7	26
11	Millwall	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Sheffield United	21	7	4	10	-6	25
13	Leeds	20	7	3	10	-6	24
14	Ipswich	21	7	3	11	-8	24
15	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-6	22
16	Burton Albion	21	5	6	10	-19	21
17	Reading	20	5	5	10	-8	20
18	Nott'm Forest	21	5	5	11	-10	20
19	Sunderland	21	4	8	9	-11	20
20	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
21	Hull	20	3	6	11	-14	15
22	QPR	21	3	6	12	-16	15
23	Birmingham	20	3	4	13	-21	13
24	Bolton	21	1	8	12	-25	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.