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Championship

Referee: David Coote

Middlesbrough

S S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Bolton

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

29%

71%

Both score Ø 36%

14%

57%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 4. · Bolton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+10	15
2	Brentford	8	4	3	1	+8	15
3	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Bristol City	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Derby	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Aston Villa	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Wigan	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+3	12
10	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Sheffield Weds	7	3	2	2	+0	11
12	Bolton	7	3	2	2	-1	11
13	Blackburn	8	2	5	1	-1	11
14	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Rotherham	8	3	0	5	-7	9
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	5	1	+0	8
17	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Hull	8	2	1	5	-4	7
19	QPR	7	2	1	4	-9	7
20	Millwall	7	1	3	3	-2	6
21	Birmingham	7	0	5	2	-2	5
22	Reading	7	1	2	4	-3	5
23	Preston	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Leeds	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Wigan	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+8	9
5	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Rotherham	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	Derby	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+0	7
12	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
14	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	6
15	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Ipswich	4	0	4	0	+0	4
20	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
21	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Hull	4	1	0	3	-2	3
23	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
24	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
2	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Derby	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	-2	5
12	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	QPR	4	1	1	2	-6	4
14	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-1	3
15	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Nott'm Forest	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Norwich	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Ipswich	4	0	0	4	-6	0
23	Preston	4	0	0	4	-8	0
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.